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Serie A

Referee: M Ferrieri Caputi

Lazio

T S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 34%

47%

21%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

37%

Both score Ø 55%

47%

63%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,88 xG 1,11

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

14 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 8. · Lecce 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	20	16	3	1	+39	+28.8	51
2	Juventus	19	14	4	1	+17	+17.2	46
3	Milan	19	12	3	4	+15	+4.8	39
4	Fiorentina	19	10	3	6	+8	-1.2	33
5	Bologna	19	8	8	3	+6	+5.4	32
6	Napoli	20	9	4	7	+5	+13.3	31
7	Atalanta	19	9	3	7	+9	+4.1	30
8	Lazio	19	9	3	7	+3	+4.2	30
9	Roma	19	8	5	6	+10	+8.9	29
10	Torino	20	7	7	6	+0	+0.9	28
11	Monza	20	6	7	7	-5	-8.9	25
12	Genoa	20	5	7	8	-4	-3.1	22
13	Lecce	19	4	9	6	-5	-10.4	21
14	Sassuolo	19	5	4	10	-7	-7.2	19
15	Frosinone	19	5	4	10	-9	-6.9	19
16	Verona	20	4	5	11	-9	-8.1	17
17	Udinese	19	2	11	6	-11	-3.8	17
18	Cagliari	19	3	6	10	-15	-5.3	15
19	Empoli	20	3	4	13	-24	-10.8	13
20	Salernitana	20	2	6	12	-23	-22.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
2	Bologna	10	7	2	1	+9	+3.6	23
3	Juventus	9	7	2	0	+9	+9.8	23
4	Roma	10	6	3	1	+14	+7.8	21
5	Milan	9	7	0	2	+11	+4.7	21
6	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+10	+4.1	19
7	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.0	19
8	Torino	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
9	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+4	+5.1	17
10	Frosinone	10	5	2	3	+2	-2.5	17
11	Lecce	10	4	4	2	+0	-0.9	16
12	Genoa	10	3	5	2	+1	-1.4	14
13	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+0	+7.8	14
14	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	-3.1	13
15	Verona	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.7	12
16	Cagliari	9	3	3	3	-4	+2.9	12
17	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
18	Udinese	10	1	6	3	-3	+2.5	9
19	Salernitana	10	1	4	5	-10	-7.8	7
20	Empoli	10	1	2	7	-12	-4.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+20	+13.1	26
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+8	+7.4	23
3	Milan	10	5	3	2	+4	+0.1	18
4	Napoli	10	5	2	3	+5	+5.4	17
5	Fiorentina	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.2	14
6	Lazio	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.9	13
7	Monza	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.7	12
8	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
9	Bologna	9	1	6	2	-3	+1.9	9
10	Torino	10	2	3	5	-6	-4.0	9
11	Roma	9	2	2	5	-4	+1.1	8
12	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-5	-6.0	8
13	Genoa	10	2	2	6	-5	-1.7	8
14	Udinese	9	1	5	3	-8	-6.3	8
15	Empoli	10	2	2	6	-12	-6.6	8
16	Lecce	9	0	5	4	-5	-9.5	5
17	Verona	10	1	2	7	-7	-6.4	5
18	Salernitana	10	1	2	7	-13	-14.1	5
19	Cagliari	10	0	3	7	-11	-8.3	3
20	Frosinone	9	0	2	7	-11	-4.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.