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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Porto

S T S U S

2–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 66%

69%

63%

Points per game

2,2

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

44%

75%

Both score Ø 69%

50%

88%

Average goals

2,2

3,9

Scored

1,4

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,75 xG 1,42

45% Possession 55%

8 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	1	2	+23	+19.3	43
2	Benfica	17	13	3	1	+24	+20.0	42
3	Porto	16	11	2	3	+11	+10.4	35
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+17	+11.8	33
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+8	+1.8	30
6	Moreirense	17	8	5	4	+6	+0.9	29
7	Famalicao	17	5	7	5	-3	-5.3	22
8	Farense	17	6	3	8	+0	-6.6	21
9	Boavista	17	5	5	7	-5	-8.8	20
10	Casa Pia	17	5	4	8	-5	-3.9	19
11	Estrela	17	4	6	7	-6	-3.7	18
12	Portimonense	17	5	3	9	-18	-9.2	18
13	Estoril	17	5	2	10	-1	-9.7	17
14	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-1	-0.5	16
15	Gil Vicente	17	4	4	9	-4	-7.5	16
16	Rio Ave	17	3	6	8	-9	+3.4	15
17	Vizela	17	2	7	8	-11	-2.6	13
18	Chaves	17	3	2	12	-26	-9.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+14	+12.0	20
3	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+9	+5.7	18
4	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+9	-2.6	16
5	Porto	7	5	1	1	+5	+10.2	16
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+9	+11.6	14
7	Farense	9	4	2	3	+5	+0.3	14
8	Estoril	8	4	1	3	+10	+0.6	13
9	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	+4.3	12
10	Famalicao	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.7	12
11	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+0	+0.3	11
12	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	-3	-3.1	11
13	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.9	10
14	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
15	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-4	-1.9	8
16	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-7	-2.1	7
17	Vizela	9	1	3	5	-8	+0.9	6
18	Casa Pia	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.0	22
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+0.2	19
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+6	+0.2	19
4	Moreirense	9	5	3	1	+6	+0.5	18
5	Sp Lisbon	8	5	1	2	+6	+6.7	16
6	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.6	14
7	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.0	12
8	Boavista	8	3	1	4	-1	-4.9	10
9	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-3.6	10
10	Arouca	7	2	2	3	+3	+1.4	8
11	Estrela	8	1	5	2	-2	-1.3	8
12	Vizela	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.5	7
13	Farense	8	2	1	5	-5	-6.9	7
14	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-15	-6.1	7
15	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
16	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-19	-7.6	4
17	Rio Ave	8	0	3	5	-9	-0.9	3
18	Gil Vicente	8	0	0	8	-13	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.