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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Milan

U S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Roma

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 53%

63%

42%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

58%

47%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

58%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,49 xG 1,40

48% Possession 52%

17 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Roma 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	20	16	3	1	+39	+28.8	51
2	Juventus	19	14	4	1	+17	+17.2	46
3	Milan	19	12	3	4	+15	+4.8	39
4	Fiorentina	20	10	4	6	+8	-1.1	34
5	Lazio	20	10	3	7	+4	+4.0	33
6	Bologna	20	8	8	4	+5	+5.4	32
7	Napoli	20	9	4	7	+5	+13.3	31
8	Atalanta	19	9	3	7	+9	+4.1	30
9	Roma	19	8	5	6	+10	+8.9	29
10	Torino	20	7	7	6	+0	+0.9	28
11	Monza	20	6	7	7	-5	-8.9	25
12	Genoa	20	5	7	8	-4	-3.1	22
13	Lecce	20	4	9	7	-6	-10.2	21
14	Sassuolo	19	5	4	10	-7	-7.2	19
15	Frosinone	19	5	4	10	-9	-6.9	19
16	Udinese	20	2	12	6	-11	-3.9	18
17	Cagliari	20	4	6	10	-14	-5.3	18
18	Verona	20	4	5	11	-9	-8.1	17
19	Empoli	20	3	4	13	-24	-10.8	13
20	Salernitana	20	2	6	12	-23	-22.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	1	1	+19	+15.8	25
2	Bologna	10	7	2	1	+9	+3.6	23
3	Juventus	9	7	2	0	+9	+9.8	23
4	Roma	10	6	3	1	+14	+7.8	21
5	Milan	9	7	0	2	+11	+4.7	21
6	Fiorentina	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.2	20
7	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+5	+4.9	20
8	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+10	+4.1	19
9	Torino	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
10	Frosinone	10	5	2	3	+2	-2.5	17
11	Lecce	10	4	4	2	+0	-0.9	16
12	Cagliari	10	4	3	3	-3	+3.0	15
13	Genoa	10	3	5	2	+1	-1.4	14
14	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+0	+7.8	14
15	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	-3.1	13
16	Verona	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.7	12
17	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-2	-1.2	11
18	Udinese	10	1	6	3	-3	+2.5	9
19	Salernitana	10	1	4	5	-10	-7.8	7
20	Empoli	10	1	2	7	-12	-4.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+20	+13.1	26
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+8	+7.4	23
3	Milan	10	5	3	2	+4	+0.1	18
4	Napoli	10	5	2	3	+5	+5.4	17
5	Fiorentina	10	4	2	4	+1	-2.2	14
6	Lazio	10	4	1	5	-1	-0.9	13
7	Monza	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.7	12
8	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.0	11
9	Bologna	10	1	6	3	-4	+1.8	9
10	Torino	10	2	3	5	-6	-4.0	9
11	Udinese	10	1	6	3	-8	-6.4	9
12	Roma	9	2	2	5	-4	+1.1	8
13	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-5	-6.0	8
14	Genoa	10	2	2	6	-5	-1.7	8
15	Empoli	10	2	2	6	-12	-6.6	8
16	Lecce	10	0	5	5	-6	-9.3	5
17	Verona	10	1	2	7	-7	-6.4	5
18	Salernitana	10	1	2	7	-13	-14.1	5
19	Cagliari	10	0	3	7	-11	-8.3	3
20	Frosinone	9	0	2	7	-11	-4.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.