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Bundesliga
Referee: H Osmers
M'gladbach
S S T U T
3–1
Full-time
Stuttgart
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Stuttgart
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 47%
25%
69%
Points per game
1,1
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 85%
94%
75%
Both score Ø 66%
81%
50%
Average goals
4,1
3,5
Scored
1,9
2,3
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,92 xG 0,92
29% Possession 71%
8 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
0 Corners 3
4 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match M'gladbach 12. · Stuttgart 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leverkusen 17 14 3 0 +35 +19.6 45
2 Bayern Munich 16 13 2 1 +37 +35.1 41
3 Stuttgart 16 11 1 4 +18 +21.2 34
4 RB Leipzig 17 10 3 4 +20 +16.5 33
5 Dortmund 17 8 6 3 +8 +3.4 30
6 Ein Frankfurt 17 7 6 4 +7 -4.3 27
7 Freiburg 17 7 4 6 -5 +1.6 25
8 Hoffenheim 17 7 3 7 -1 -2.7 24
9 Heidenheim 17 6 3 8 -7 -16.3 21
10 Wolfsburg 17 6 2 9 -7 -4.9 20
11 Augsburg 17 4 6 7 -8 -4.9 18
12 M'gladbach 16 4 5 7 -4 -4.5 17
13 Werder Bremen 17 4 5 8 -7 -7.2 17
14 Bochum 17 3 8 6 -15 -7.6 17
15 Union Berlin 16 4 2 10 -14 -5.9 14
16 Mainz 17 1 8 8 -15 -1.6 11
17 FC Koln 17 2 5 10 -18 -18.0 11
18 Darmstadt 17 2 4 11 -24 -19.4 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

M'gladbach Stuttgart
1–0 R. Hack
R. Reitz
1′
2–0 R. Hack
A. Pléa
19′
Julian Weigl 🟨
35′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 A. Rouault
↦ M. Mittelstädt
46′
🔁 J. Leweling
↦ P. Stenzel
48′
🟨 Maximilian Mittelstädt
55′
J. Vagnoman 2–1
J. Leweling
J. Siebatcheu 🔁
↦ A. Pléa
66′
Nico Elvedi 🟨
70′
N. Ngoumou 🔁
↦ F. Honorat
75′
82′
🔁 L. Raimund
↦ A. Karazor
83′
🟨 Enzo Millot
83′
🟨 Luca Raimund
3–1 J. Siebatcheu
91′
F. Neuhaus 🔁
↦ R. Hack
92′
C. Kramer 🔁
↦ M. Koné
93′
Christoph Kramer 🟨
95′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

M'gladbach

4-3-3
33 M. Nicolas G
29 J. Scally D
5 M. Friedrich D
30 N. Elvedi D
20 L. Netz D
27 R. Reitz M
8 J. Weigl M
17 M. Koné M
9 F. Honorat F
14 A. Pléa F
25 R. Hack F
Bench (9)
13 J. Siebatcheu
19 N. Ngoumou
10 F. Neuhaus
23 C. Kramer
41 J. Olschowsky
24 T. Jantschke
7 P. Herrmann
28 G. Ranos
2 F. Chiarodia

Coach: G. Seoane

Stuttgart

4-2-3-1
33 A. Nübel G
15 P. Stenzel D
2 W. Anton D
23 D. Zagadou D
7 M. Mittelstädt D
16 A. Karazor M
6 A. Stiller M
4 J. Vagnoman M
8 E. Millot M
27 C. Führich M
26 D. Undav F
Bench (9)
29 A. Rouault
18 J. Leweling
40 L. Raimund
49 M. Cissé
1 F. Bredlow
17 G. Haraguchi
19 J. Milošević
43 R. Paula
20 L. Stergiou

Coach: S. Hoeneß

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,60
U
4,05
B
1,93
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,51
U2,5
2,58
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

H Osmers · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.