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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Man City

S S U S T

3–1

Full-time

Chelsea

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

5,2

3,3

Scored

4,0

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

73%

59%

Both score Ø 71%

68%

73%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,50 xG 1,80

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

5 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 7. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	16	5	1	+33	+33.0	53
2	Arsenal	23	13	8	2	+23	+18.1	47
3	Nott'm Forest	23	13	5	5	+6	+2.8	44
4	Newcastle	23	12	5	6	+14	+12.5	41
5	Chelsea	22	11	7	4	+17	+14.9	40
6	Bournemouth	23	11	7	5	+15	+15.7	40
7	Man City	22	11	5	6	+15	+9.8	38
8	Aston Villa	22	10	6	6	-1	+6.5	36
9	Brighton	23	8	10	5	+4	-1.3	34
10	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+4	+5.1	33
11	Brentford	22	8	4	10	+1	-2.8	28
12	Crystal Palace	22	6	9	7	-3	-0.4	27
13	Man United	22	7	5	10	-5	-1.1	26
14	West Ham	22	7	5	10	-16	-9.1	26
15	Tottenham	22	7	3	12	+10	+0.8	24
16	Everton	22	5	8	9	-9	-7.5	23
17	Wolves	23	4	4	15	-20	-15.0	16
18	Ipswich	23	3	7	13	-26	-26.9	16
19	Leicester	22	3	5	14	-25	-22.7	14
20	Southampton	23	1	3	19	-37	-32.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.5	26
2	Arsenal	11	7	4	0	+13	+14.2	25
3	Brentford	12	7	2	3	+6	+2.9	23
4	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
5	Bournemouth	11	6	3	2	+10	+10.3	21
6	Nott'm Forest	11	6	3	2	+5	+3.8	21
7	Man City	10	6	2	2	+7	+9.5	20
8	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.1	20
9	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+6	+10.5	19
10	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	+1.0	17
11	Man United	12	5	1	6	-3	+1.7	16
12	Brighton	11	3	6	2	+0	+2.1	15
13	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
14	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
15	Everton	11	3	4	4	-1	-2.8	13
16	Crystal Palace	11	2	5	4	-7	+0.8	11
17	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
18	Wolves	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.1	7
19	Ipswich	12	1	4	7	-16	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-22	-19.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+18	+18.5	27
2	Nott'm Forest	12	7	2	3	+1	-0.9	23
3	Arsenal	12	6	4	2	+10	+3.9	22
4	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	+4.4	21
5	Newcastle	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.5	21
6	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
7	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	-3.4	19
8	Man City	12	5	3	4	+8	+0.3	18
9	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.2	16
10	Fulham	11	4	4	3	+3	+4.1	16
11	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-7	-5.5	14
12	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
13	Tottenham	11	3	1	7	+5	+0.1	10
14	Man United	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.8	10
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.7	10
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Ipswich	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.0	9
18	Brentford	10	1	2	7	-5	-5.7	5
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-15	-13.0	5
20	Southampton	12	0	2	10	-15	-13.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.