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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Southampton

T T S T T

1–3

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 28%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

59%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,76 xG 2,93

53% Possession 47%

12 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 20. · Newcastle 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	21	15	5	1	+30	+31.5	50
2	Arsenal	22	12	8	2	+22	+17.9	44
3	Nott'm Forest	22	13	5	4	+11	+3.5	44
4	Chelsea	22	11	7	4	+17	+14.9	40
5	Man City	22	11	5	6	+15	+9.8	38
6	Newcastle	22	11	5	6	+12	+10.4	38
7	Bournemouth	22	10	7	5	+10	+14.9	37
8	Aston Villa	22	10	6	6	-1	+6.5	36
9	Brighton	22	8	10	4	+5	-1.2	34
10	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+4	+5.1	33
11	Brentford	22	8	4	10	+1	-2.8	28
12	Crystal Palace	22	6	9	7	-3	-0.4	27
13	Man United	22	7	5	10	-5	-1.1	26
14	West Ham	22	7	5	10	-16	-9.1	26
15	Tottenham	22	7	3	12	+10	+0.8	24
16	Everton	21	4	8	9	-10	-7.6	20
17	Wolves	22	4	4	14	-19	-14.7	16
18	Ipswich	22	3	7	12	-23	-25.4	16
19	Leicester	22	3	5	14	-25	-22.7	14
20	Southampton	22	1	3	18	-35	-30.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	7	4	0	+13	+14.2	25
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.0	23
3	Brentford	12	7	2	3	+6	+2.9	23
4	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
5	Nott'm Forest	11	6	3	2	+5	+3.8	21
6	Man City	10	6	2	2	+7	+9.5	20
7	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.1	20
8	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+6	+10.5	19
9	Bournemouth	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.6	18
10	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	+1.0	17
11	Man United	12	5	1	6	-3	+1.7	16
12	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	+2.2	15
13	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
14	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
15	Everton	11	3	4	4	-1	-2.8	13
16	Crystal Palace	11	2	5	4	-7	+0.8	11
17	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
18	Wolves	10	2	1	7	-9	-5.8	7
19	Ipswich	12	1	4	7	-16	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-20	-16.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+18	+18.5	27
2	Nott'm Forest	11	7	2	2	+6	-0.2	23
3	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	+4.4	21
4	Arsenal	11	5	4	2	+9	+3.7	19
5	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
6	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	-3.4	19
7	Man City	12	5	3	4	+8	+0.3	18
8	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+5	+4.3	18
9	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.2	16
10	Fulham	11	4	4	3	+3	+4.1	16
11	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-7	-5.5	14
12	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
13	Tottenham	11	3	1	7	+5	+0.1	10
14	Man United	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.8	10
15	Ipswich	10	2	3	5	-7	-14.6	9
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Everton	10	1	4	5	-9	-4.8	7
18	Brentford	10	1	2	7	-5	-5.7	5
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-15	-13.0	5
20	Southampton	12	0	2	10	-15	-13.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.