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League Cup
Referee: C Kavanagh
Newcastle
T T S U S
1–0
Full-time
Man City
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,7
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

33% Possession 67%
7 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 7
12 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Blackburn 3 3 0 0 +12 9
2 Middlesbrough 3 3 0 0 +5 9
3 Ipswich 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Port Vale 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Exeter City 3 2 1 0 +2 7
6 Burnley 2 2 0 0 +5 6
7 Stoke 3 2 0 1 +4 6
8 Bournemouth 2 2 0 0 +3 6
9 Leicester 3 2 0 1 +2 6
10 Everton 2 2 0 0 +2 6
11 Chelsea 2 2 0 0 +2 6
12 Norwich 3 2 0 1 +1 6
13 Mansfield Town 3 1 2 0 +2 5
14 Reading 2 1 1 0 +4 4
15 Portsmouth 2 1 1 0 +2 4
16 Newport County 2 1 1 0 +2 4
17 Fulham 2 1 1 0 +1 4
18 Leeds 2 1 1 0 +1 4
19 Lincoln 3 1 1 1 +1 4
20 Sutton Utd 3 1 1 1 +0 4
21 Cardiff 3 1 1 1 -1 4
22 Wolves 2 1 0 1 +4 3
23 Bristol City 2 1 0 1 +3 3
24 Man United 1 1 0 0 +3 3
25 Swansea 2 1 0 1 +2 3
26 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Gillingham 2 1 0 1 +1 3
28 Wycombe 2 1 0 1 +1 3
29 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 West Ham 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Plymouth 2 1 0 1 +0 3
32 Peterborough 3 0 3 0 +0 3
33 AFC Wimbledon 2 1 0 1 +0 3
34 Luton 2 1 0 1 +0 3
35 Doncaster 2 1 0 1 +0 3
36 Birmingham 2 1 0 1 +0 3
37 Crystal Palace 2 1 0 1 -1 3
38 Bolton 2 1 0 1 -1 3
39 Blackpool 2 1 0 1 -3 3
40 Harrogate Town 2 1 0 1 -7 3
41 Sheffield Weds 2 0 2 0 +0 2
42 Stevenage 2 0 2 0 +0 2
43 Crewe 2 0 2 0 +0 2
44 Wrexham 2 0 2 0 +0 2
45 Bradford 3 0 2 1 -2 2
46 Salford City 3 0 2 1 -4 2
47 Barnsley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Preston 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 Colchester 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Cambridge United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 Tottenham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Sunderland 1 0 1 0 +0 1
53 Stockport County 1 0 1 0 +0 1
54 Morecambe 1 0 1 0 +0 1
55 Swindon Town 1 0 1 0 +0 1
56 Accrington ST 1 0 1 0 +0 1
57 Watford 1 0 1 0 +0 1
58 Sheffield United 1 0 1 0 +0 1
59 Wigan 1 0 1 0 +0 1
60 Brentford 2 0 1 1 -1 1
61 Tranmere 2 0 1 1 -2 1
62 Rotherham 2 0 1 1 -5 1
63 Walsall 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Huddersfield 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Fleetwood Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Aston Villa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Shrewsbury 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Hull 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 West Brom 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Crawley Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
71 Coventry 1 0 0 1 -1 0
72 Brighton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
73 Nott'm Forest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 QPR 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Barrow 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Carlisle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Forest Green 1 0 0 1 -2 0
78 Charlton 1 0 0 1 -2 0
79 Southampton 1 0 0 1 -2 0
80 Bristol Rovers 1 0 0 1 -2 0
81 Derby 1 0 0 1 -2 0
82 Leyton Orient 1 0 0 1 -2 0
83 Milton Keynes Dons 1 0 0 1 -2 0
84 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -2 0
85 Notts County 1 0 0 1 -2 0
86 Cheltenham 1 0 0 1 -2 0
87 Grimsby 1 0 0 1 -2 0
88 Northampton 1 0 0 1 -3 0
89 Oxford 1 0 0 1 -4 0
90 Millwall 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newcastle Man City
Half-time 0–0
A. Gordon 🔁
↦ L. Hall
46′
Bruno Guimarães 🔁
↦ L. Miley
46′
1–0 A. Isak
Joelinton
53′
M. Almirón 🔁
↦ A. Isak
62′
65′
🟨 Manuel Akanji
66′
🟨 Kalvin Phillips
68′
🔁 Matheus Nunes
↦ N. Aké
68′
🔁 J. Doku
↦ M. Kovačić
Bruno Guimarães 🟨
69′
73′
🔁 P. Foden
↦ J. Álvarez
Sandro Tonali 🟨
82′
E. Anderson 🔁
↦ S. Tonali
90′
F. Schär 🔁
↦ P. Dummett
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
22 N. Pope G
21 T. Livramento D
6 J. Lascelles D
3 P. Dummett D
13 M. Targett D
67 L. Miley M
8 S. Tonali M
7 Joelinton M
23 J. Murphy F
14 A. Isak F
20 L. Hall F
Bench (9)
10 A. Gordon
39 Bruno Guimarães
24 M. Almirón
5 F. Schär
32 E. Anderson
18 L. Karius
2 K. Trippier
11 M. Ritchie
19 Javier Manquillo

Coach: E. Howe

Man City

3-2-4-1
18 S. Ortega G
25 M. Akanji D
24 J. Gvardiol D
6 N. Aké D
82 R. Lewis M
4 K. Phillips M
21 Sergio Gómez F
52 O. Bobb M
8 M. Kovačić M
10 J. Grealish F
19 J. Álvarez F
Bench (9)
27 Matheus Nunes
11 J. Doku
47 P. Foden
2 K. Walker
3 Rúben Dias
9 E. Haaland
92 M. Hamilton
33 S. Carson
31 Ederson

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

C Kavanagh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.