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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Ipswich

U S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Southampton

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 9%

13%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

48%

57%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,55 xG 1,01

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 19. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	16	5	1	+33	+33.0	53
2	Arsenal	23	13	8	2	+23	+18.1	47
3	Nott'm Forest	24	14	5	5	+13	+5.3	47
4	Man City	23	12	5	6	+17	+10.5	41
5	Newcastle	23	12	5	6	+14	+12.5	41
6	Chelsea	23	11	7	5	+15	+14.2	40
7	Bournemouth	23	11	7	5	+15	+15.7	40
8	Aston Villa	23	10	7	6	-1	+6.0	37
9	Brighton	24	8	10	6	-3	-3.8	34
10	Fulham	23	8	9	6	+3	+5.5	33
11	Brentford	23	9	4	10	+2	-2.4	31
12	Man United	23	8	5	10	-4	-1.5	29
13	Crystal Palace	23	6	9	8	-4	-0.9	27
14	West Ham	23	7	6	10	-16	-8.7	27
15	Tottenham	23	7	3	13	+9	+0.3	24
16	Everton	22	5	8	9	-9	-7.5	23
17	Leicester	23	4	5	14	-24	-22.2	17
18	Wolves	23	4	4	15	-20	-15.0	16
19	Ipswich	23	3	7	13	-26	-26.9	16
20	Southampton	23	1	3	19	-37	-32.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.5	26
2	Arsenal	11	7	4	0	+13	+14.2	25
3	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
4	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+10.2	23
5	Brentford	12	7	2	3	+6	+2.9	23
6	Aston Villa	12	6	5	1	+6	+11.5	23
7	Bournemouth	11	6	3	2	+10	+10.3	21
8	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.1	20
9	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+6	+10.5	19
10	Fulham	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.4	17
11	Man United	12	5	1	6	-3	+1.7	16
12	Brighton	11	3	6	2	+0	+2.1	15
13	Tottenham	12	4	2	6	+4	+0.2	14
14	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
15	Everton	11	3	4	4	-1	-2.8	13
16	Crystal Palace	12	2	5	5	-8	+0.4	11
17	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
18	Wolves	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.1	7
19	Ipswich	12	1	4	7	-16	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-22	-19.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+18	+18.5	27
2	Nott'm Forest	12	7	2	3	+1	-0.9	23
3	Arsenal	12	6	4	2	+10	+3.9	22
4	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+9	+3.7	21
5	Newcastle	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.5	21
6	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
7	Brighton	13	5	4	4	-3	-5.9	19
8	Man City	12	5	3	4	+8	+0.3	18
9	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.2	16
10	Fulham	11	4	4	3	+3	+4.1	16
11	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-7	-5.5	14
12	Man United	11	3	4	4	-1	-3.2	13
13	West Ham	11	3	4	4	-6	-2.0	13
14	Tottenham	11	3	1	7	+5	+0.1	10
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.7	10
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Ipswich	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.0	9
18	Brentford	11	2	2	7	-4	-5.2	8
19	Leicester	11	2	2	7	-14	-12.5	8
20	Southampton	12	0	2	10	-15	-13.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.