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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Man United

T T T U U

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 18%

30%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

40%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,4

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,42 xG 1,54

60% Possession 40%

23 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 5

12 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 15. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	20	14	5	1	+28	+28.8	47
2	Arsenal	21	12	7	2	+22	+17.6	43
3	Nott'm Forest	21	12	5	4	+10	+2.4	41
4	Newcastle	21	11	5	5	+15	+11.8	38
5	Chelsea	21	10	7	4	+15	+12.6	37
6	Man City	21	10	5	6	+9	+7.3	35
7	Aston Villa	21	10	5	6	-1	+6.8	35
8	Bournemouth	21	9	7	5	+7	+13.5	34
9	Brighton	21	7	10	4	+3	-1.6	31
10	Fulham	21	7	9	5	+2	+3.3	30
11	Brentford	21	8	4	9	+3	-0.1	28
12	West Ham	21	7	5	9	-14	-8.1	26
13	Tottenham	21	7	3	11	+11	+1.7	24
14	Crystal Palace	21	5	9	7	-5	-1.5	24
15	Man United	20	6	5	9	-5	-2.5	23
16	Everton	20	3	8	9	-11	-8.4	17
17	Wolves	21	4	4	13	-17	-12.4	16
18	Ipswich	21	3	7	11	-17	-23.0	16
19	Leicester	21	3	5	13	-23	-21.0	14
20	Southampton	20	1	3	16	-32	-27.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	7	3	0	+13	+13.9	24
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.0	23
3	Brentford	11	7	2	2	+8	+5.6	23
4	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
5	Newcastle	10	6	2	2	+10	+7.5	20
6	Man City	10	6	2	2	+7	+9.5	20
7	Bournemouth	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.6	18
8	Nott'm Forest	10	5	3	2	+4	+2.6	18
9	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	+1.0	17
10	Chelsea	10	4	4	2	+4	+8.2	16
11	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	+2.2	15
12	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
13	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-8	-5.6	14
14	Man United	10	4	1	5	-3	+0.3	13
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	5	4	-7	+0.8	11
16	Everton	10	2	4	4	-2	-3.6	10
17	Leicester	11	2	3	6	-8	-8.0	9
18	Wolves	10	2	1	7	-9	-5.8	7
19	Ipswich	11	1	4	6	-10	-8.4	7
20	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-20	-16.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	7	3	0	+16	+15.8	24
2	Nott'm Forest	11	7	2	2	+6	-0.2	23
3	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	+4.4	21
4	Arsenal	11	5	4	2	+9	+3.7	19
5	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+5	+4.3	18
6	Bournemouth	11	4	4	3	+2	+3.9	16
7	Brighton	11	4	4	3	+2	-3.8	16
8	Man City	11	4	3	4	+2	-2.2	15
9	Crystal Palace	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.3	13
10	Fulham	10	3	4	3	+1	+2.3	13
11	Aston Villa	10	4	1	5	-7	-5.2	13
12	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
13	Tottenham	10	3	1	6	+6	+1.0	10
14	Man United	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.8	10
15	Ipswich	10	2	3	5	-7	-14.6	9
16	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-8	-6.6	9
17	Everton	10	1	4	5	-9	-4.8	7
18	Brentford	10	1	2	7	-5	-5.7	5
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-15	-13.0	5
20	Southampton	10	0	2	8	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.