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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Gil Vicente

U U S S T

1–2

Full-time

Estoril

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

26%

32%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

58%

Both score Ø 50%

58%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,63 xG 1,59

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 3

6 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 12. · Estoril 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	15	2	2	+39	+33.6	47
2	Benfica	19	13	2	4	+29	+23.2	41
3	Porto	19	13	2	4	+27	+21.0	41
4	Sp Braga	19	11	4	4	+15	+14.8	37
5	Santa Clara	20	11	2	7	+2	+8.4	35
6	Casa Pia	20	8	6	6	+1	-5.2	30
7	Guimaraes	19	6	8	5	+3	+5.5	26
8	Famalicao	20	5	9	6	-2	-6.6	24
9	Estoril	19	6	6	7	-8	-14.9	24
10	Moreirense	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.7	23
11	Rio Ave	19	6	5	8	-12	-15.7	23
12	Gil Vicente	19	5	7	7	-6	-6.7	22
13	Arouca	20	6	4	10	-13	-9.9	22
14	Nacional	20	5	4	11	-11	-4.0	19
15	AVS	19	3	9	7	-12	-8.1	18
16	Estrela	19	4	5	10	-14	-11.4	17
17	Farense	19	3	6	10	-13	-14.8	15
18	Boavista	20	2	6	12	-21	-9.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+23	+21.8	28
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
3	Sp Lisbon	9	8	0	1	+16	+13.7	24
4	Santa Clara	11	7	1	3	+2	+11.1	22
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+7	+1.4	16
6	Guimaraes	9	4	4	1	+4	+3.9	16
7	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
8	Moreirense	9	4	4	1	+2	-1.5	16
9	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
10	Nacional	10	5	1	4	-2	-2.0	16
11	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+6	+11.7	15
12	Estoril	10	4	3	3	-2	-6.1	15
13	Estrela	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.4	14
14	AVS	10	3	4	3	-4	-5.6	13
15	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.3	11
16	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
17	Farense	9	2	1	6	-8	-4.5	7
18	Boavista	10	0	3	7	-13	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.1	22
3	Benfica	9	4	2	3	+3	+5.9	14
4	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-3	-5.8	14
5	Porto	9	4	1	4	+4	-0.8	13
6	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+0	-2.7	13
8	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.2	11
9	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-1	+1.6	10
10	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.8	9
11	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-8	-5.8	9
12	Farense	10	1	5	4	-5	-10.3	8
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-6	+2.2	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Gil Vicente	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.1	6
16	AVS	9	0	5	4	-8	-2.4	5
17	Nacional	10	0	3	7	-9	-2.0	3
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.