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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Ipswich

S S T S S

3–2

Full-time

Southampton

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 39/35 matches

Win Ø 61%

64%

57%

Points per game

2,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

63%

Both score Ø 66%

62%

69%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,1

2,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,95 xG 1,34

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Ipswich 2. · Southampton 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	39	27	4	8	+42	+32.0	85
2	Ipswich	39	25	9	5	+32	+23.6	84
3	Leeds	37	23	8	6	+40	+32.4	77
4	West Brom	38	19	11	8	+26	+5.9	68
5	Southampton	35	20	8	7	+23	+28.1	68
6	Norwich	38	19	7	12	+16	+0.3	64
7	Coventry	39	16	12	11	+17	+11.7	60
8	Preston	39	17	8	14	-3	-11.7	59
9	Hull	38	16	10	12	+5	+6.0	58
10	Middlesbrough	40	17	7	16	+3	+13.0	58
11	Cardiff	40	17	5	18	-9	-22.8	56
12	Bristol City	40	15	8	17	-1	-2.6	53
13	Sunderland	40	15	6	19	+1	+6.4	51
14	Watford	40	12	14	14	+2	+1.0	50
15	Swansea	40	12	11	17	-11	-9.0	47
16	QPR	40	12	10	18	-12	-6.1	46
17	Blackburn	40	12	9	19	-10	-4.9	45
18	Stoke	40	12	9	19	-16	-3.1	45
19	Millwall	40	11	11	18	-15	-11.1	44
20	Birmingham	40	11	9	20	-17	-8.2	42
21	Plymouth	40	10	11	19	-10	-18.8	41
22	Huddersfield	40	8	16	16	-21	-11.0	40
23	Sheffield Weds	40	11	6	23	-33	-10.6	39
24	Rotherham	40	4	11	25	-49	-40.3	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	14	4	0	+28	+21.8	46
2	Ipswich	19	14	4	1	+24	+22.4	46
3	Norwich	19	14	2	3	+21	+10.0	44
4	Leicester	19	14	1	4	+24	+16.7	43
5	West Brom	19	13	4	2	+19	+9.3	43
6	Southampton	18	11	3	4	+20	+20.1	36
7	Preston	20	10	4	6	+0	-4.5	34
8	Coventry	19	8	8	3	+11	+7.8	32
9	Sunderland	20	10	1	9	+3	+5.2	31
10	Birmingham	20	8	6	6	+3	+0.7	30
11	Bristol City	20	9	3	8	+3	+0.1	30
12	Cardiff	20	9	3	8	-1	-10.1	30
13	Hull	20	7	7	6	+5	+6.8	28
14	Plymouth	20	8	4	8	+4	-7.8	28
15	Middlesbrough	20	8	4	8	+1	+10.9	28
16	Sheffield Weds	20	7	5	8	-3	+2.0	26
17	Blackburn	20	6	5	9	-5	+1.6	23
18	Swansea	20	6	5	9	-5	+0.4	23
19	Stoke	20	6	5	9	-10	-0.4	23
20	Millwall	20	6	5	9	-11	-3.8	23
21	Watford	20	5	7	8	+3	+8.3	22
22	Huddersfield	20	5	7	8	-7	-2.8	22
23	QPR	20	5	6	9	-7	+0.8	21
24	Rotherham	20	4	7	9	-6	-11.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	20	13	3	4	+18	+15.2	42
2	Ipswich	20	11	5	4	+8	+1.2	38
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Leeds	19	9	4	6	+12	+10.5	31
5	Middlesbrough	20	9	3	8	+2	+2.1	30
6	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
7	Coventry	20	8	4	8	+6	+3.9	28
8	Watford	20	7	7	6	-1	-7.2	28
9	Cardiff	20	8	2	10	-8	-12.7	26
10	West Brom	19	6	7	6	+7	-3.4	25
11	Preston	19	7	4	8	-3	-7.3	25
12	QPR	20	7	4	9	-5	-6.8	25
13	Swansea	20	6	6	8	-6	-9.4	24
14	Bristol City	20	6	5	9	-4	-2.7	23
15	Blackburn	20	6	4	10	-5	-6.6	22
16	Stoke	20	6	4	10	-6	-2.7	22
17	Millwall	20	5	6	9	-4	-7.3	21
18	Sunderland	20	5	5	10	-2	+1.2	20
19	Norwich	19	5	5	9	-5	-9.7	20
20	Huddersfield	20	3	9	8	-14	-8.2	18
21	Plymouth	20	2	7	11	-14	-11.0	13
22	Sheffield Weds	20	4	1	15	-30	-12.6	13
23	Birmingham	20	3	3	14	-20	-8.9	12
24	Rotherham	20	0	4	16	-43	-28.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.