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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Monza

T T S T T

0–1

Full-time

Verona

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 18%

27%

Points per game

0,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

68%

Both score Ø 57%

64%

50%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,38 xG 0,92

66% Possession 34%

9 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

12 Free kicks against 23

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 20. · Verona 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	22	17	2	3	+22	+14.9	53
2	Inter	21	15	5	1	+37	+23.9	50
3	Atalanta	22	14	4	4	+23	+15.9	46
4	Lazio	22	12	3	7	+8	+9.8	39
5	Juventus	22	8	13	1	+16	+10.9	37
6	Fiorentina	21	10	6	5	+13	+8.5	36
7	Milan	21	9	7	5	+9	+13.7	34
8	Bologna	21	8	10	3	+6	+5.4	34
9	Roma	22	8	6	8	+5	+3.8	30
10	Torino	22	6	8	8	-3	-7.1	26
11	Udinese	22	7	5	10	-9	-10.1	26
12	Genoa	22	6	8	8	-10	-6.9	26
13	Lecce	23	6	5	12	-23	-15.7	23
14	Como	22	5	7	10	-9	+2.2	22
15	Empoli	22	4	9	9	-8	-10.7	21
16	Cagliari	22	5	6	11	-13	-7.9	21
17	Parma	23	4	8	11	-13	-13.3	20
18	Verona	22	6	2	14	-23	-12.7	20
19	Venezia	22	3	7	12	-15	-14.7	16
20	Monza	22	2	7	13	-13	-9.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	0	2	+10	+12.2	27
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	+10.0	24
3	Atalanta	10	7	1	2	+13	+8.0	22
4	Roma	11	7	0	4	+12	+6.9	21
5	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+4	+6.3	21
6	Milan	11	5	5	1	+10	+10.6	20
7	Juventus	11	4	7	0	+8	+8.6	19
8	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+5	+8.4	18
9	Bologna	10	4	5	1	+6	+8.1	17
10	Como	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.9	15
11	Udinese	11	4	2	5	-3	-4.5	14
12	Torino	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.3	13
13	Lecce	11	3	4	4	-12	-2.3	13
14	Venezia	11	3	3	5	-2	-0.7	12
15	Parma	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.0	12
16	Genoa	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.9	12
17	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-7	-1.2	12
18	Verona	11	3	1	7	-14	-4.4	10
19	Empoli	11	1	5	5	-7	-3.5	8
20	Monza	11	1	3	7	-6	-3.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+24	+13.9	26
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+12	+2.7	26
3	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+10	+7.9	24
4	Fiorentina	11	5	3	3	+8	+0.1	18
5	Juventus	11	4	6	1	+8	+2.3	18
6	Lazio	11	6	0	5	+4	+3.5	18
7	Bologna	11	4	5	2	+0	-2.7	17
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	-1	+3.0	14
9	Genoa	10	4	2	4	-6	-4.9	14
10	Empoli	11	3	4	4	-1	-7.2	13
11	Torino	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.7	13
12	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-6	-5.5	12
13	Verona	11	3	1	7	-9	-8.3	10
14	Lecce	12	3	1	8	-11	-13.4	10
15	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-6	-6.7	9
16	Roma	11	1	6	4	-7	-3.1	9
17	Parma	11	1	5	5	-9	-10.4	8
18	Monza	11	1	4	6	-7	-6.4	7
19	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
20	Venezia	11	0	4	7	-13	-14.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.