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Bundesliga

Referee: F Exner

Bayern Munich

S S T S S

4–3

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

5,0

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 48%

79%

16%

Points per game

2,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

74%

79%

Both score Ø 64%

53%

74%

Average goals

3,9

4,0

Scored

3,1

1,5

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,44 xG 1,85

71% Possession 29%

29 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

12 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Holstein Kiel 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	15	3	1	+42	+34.6	48
2	Leverkusen	19	12	6	1	+20	+17.3	42
3	Ein Frankfurt	19	11	4	4	+18	+8.3	37
4	Stuttgart	19	9	5	5	+8	+10.7	32
5	RB Leipzig	19	9	5	5	+5	-6.4	32
6	Mainz	20	9	4	7	+9	-1.5	31
7	Werder Bremen	20	8	6	6	-2	+1.8	30
8	Wolfsburg	19	8	4	7	+8	-2.0	28
9	M'gladbach	19	8	3	8	+1	-4.3	27
10	Freiburg	19	8	3	8	-10	-2.1	27
11	Dortmund	19	7	5	7	+1	+2.3	26
12	Augsburg	19	7	4	8	-11	-6.7	25
13	St Pauli	19	6	2	11	-4	-4.8	20
14	Union Berlin	19	5	5	9	-11	-4.6	20
15	Hoffenheim	19	4	6	9	-12	-9.6	18
16	Heidenheim	19	4	2	13	-16	-5.5	14
17	Holstein Kiel	19	3	3	13	-20	-11.6	12
18	Bochum	19	2	4	13	-26	-15.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+24	+20.0	25
2	Leverkusen	10	7	2	1	+12	+12.1	23
3	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.0	21
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	6	2	1	+13	+9.8	20
5	Stuttgart	10	6	2	2	+11	+12.9	20
6	M'gladbach	10	6	1	3	+9	+2.5	19
7	Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+5	+3.5	19
8	RB Leipzig	9	5	3	1	+6	+1.0	18
9	Mainz	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.8	17
10	Augsburg	10	5	2	3	+2	+3.3	17
11	Union Berlin	9	4	3	2	+1	+1.9	15
12	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	-3	+0.6	13
13	Wolfsburg	10	3	3	4	+0	+0.9	12
14	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	-4	+0.0	11
15	Bochum	9	2	3	4	-7	-2.5	9
16	Holstein Kiel	10	3	0	7	-11	-5.3	9
17	St Pauli	9	2	2	5	-4	+0.1	8
18	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-8	-1.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	7	2	1	+18	+14.6	23
2	Leverkusen	9	5	4	0	+8	+5.2	19
3	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+5	-1.5	17
4	Werder Bremen	10	5	2	3	+1	+1.3	17
5	Wolfsburg	9	5	1	3	+8	-2.9	16
6	Mainz	10	4	2	4	+5	-5.3	14
7	RB Leipzig	10	4	2	4	-1	-7.4	14
8	St Pauli	10	4	0	6	+0	-4.9	12
9	Stuttgart	9	3	3	3	-3	-2.2	12
10	M'gladbach	9	2	2	5	-8	-6.8	8
11	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-13	-10.0	8
12	Freiburg	10	2	2	6	-15	-5.6	8
13	Heidenheim	10	2	1	7	-8	-4.2	7
14	Hoffenheim	9	1	4	4	-8	-9.6	7
15	Dortmund	9	1	2	6	-10	-3.7	5
16	Union Berlin	10	1	2	7	-12	-6.5	5
17	Holstein Kiel	9	0	3	6	-9	-6.4	3
18	Bochum	10	0	1	9	-19	-13.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.