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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Lille

U T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Marseille

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

0,5

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 31%

11%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

44%

60%

Both score Ø 41%

22%

60%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

18 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 19. · Marseille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+26	29
2	Monaco	11	8	1	2	+16	25
3	Lyon	11	6	4	1	+12	22
4	Nantes	11	6	2	3	+1	20
5	Marseille	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	St Etienne	11	5	3	3	+3	18
7	Caen	11	6	0	5	+0	18
8	Bordeaux	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Montpellier	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	-4	15
11	Guingamp	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Angers	11	2	7	2	+2	13
13	Rennes	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Dijon	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Troyes	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	Nice	11	3	1	7	-6	10
17	Amiens	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Lille	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Metz	11	1	0	10	-16	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+18	18
2	Lyon	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Caen	6	4	0	2	+1	12
5	St Etienne	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	Guingamp	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	Toulouse	5	3	1	1	+2	10
9	Nantes	5	3	1	1	+2	10
10	Marseille	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Montpellier	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Nice	6	2	1	3	+2	7
13	Dijon	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Amiens	4	2	0	2	+0	6
15	Strasbourg	5	1	2	2	+1	5
16	Lille	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Troyes	6	1	2	3	-6	5
18	Rennes	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Angers	5	0	3	2	-2	3
20	Metz	5	0	0	5	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	11
3	Angers	6	2	4	0	+4	10
4	Marseille	5	3	1	1	+0	10
5	Nantes	6	3	1	2	-1	10
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Rennes	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Troyes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Montpellier	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	St Etienne	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Caen	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Bordeaux	6	1	3	2	-4	6
13	Dijon	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Toulouse	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	Strasbourg	6	1	2	3	-8	5
16	Amiens	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Guingamp	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Metz	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Nice	5	1	0	4	-8	3
20	Lille	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.