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Eredivisie

Referee: R Hensgens

AZ Alkmaar

S T S T S

4–0

Full-time

Heracles

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

42%

19%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

65%

73%

Both score Ø 64%

73%

54%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,6

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,28 xG 0,66

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · Heracles 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	27	22	2	3	+43	+27.5	68
2	Nijmegen	27	14	7	6	+22	+7.9	49
3	Feyenoord	26	15	4	7	+20	+22.2	49
4	Ajax	26	11	11	4	+16	+8.8	44
5	Twente	27	11	11	5	+16	+24.9	44
6	Heerenveen	26	11	6	9	+3	+8.6	39
7	AZ Alkmaar	26	11	6	9	+1	+14.6	39
8	Sparta Rotterdam	27	11	5	11	-14	-5.1	38
9	Utrecht	26	10	7	9	+9	+2.6	37
10	Groningen	26	10	5	11	+2	+9.6	35
11	For Sittard	27	10	5	12	-8	-12.7	35
12	Zwolle	27	7	9	11	-16	-16.9	30
13	Go Ahead Eagles	26	6	11	9	-4	-15.5	29
14	Volendam	27	7	6	14	-16	-22.5	27
15	Excelsior	26	7	5	14	-17	-13.0	26
16	Telstar	27	5	9	13	-10	-11.3	24
17	NAC Breda	26	5	8	13	-14	-8.4	23
18	Heracles	26	5	3	18	-33	-21.2	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	2	2	+22	+15.3	32
2	Feyenoord	13	9	1	3	+13	+14.9	28
3	Ajax	13	8	3	2	+15	+13.8	27
4	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+15	+8.8	26
5	Twente	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.9	25
6	Heerenveen	14	6	5	3	+5	+9.5	23
7	Volendam	14	6	4	4	+4	-3.6	22
8	For Sittard	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.3	21
9	Zwolle	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.2	21
10	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	+9	+5.4	20
11	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	5	2	+4	+9.0	20
12	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	4	4	-5	+0.2	19
13	Groningen	13	5	3	5	+6	+5.9	18
14	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	6	3	+2	+1.9	18
15	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-3	+2.6	16
16	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
17	Heracles	13	4	2	7	-7	-6.1	14
18	Telstar	13	2	5	6	-3	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+21	+12.2	36
2	Nijmegen	14	6	5	3	+7	-0.9	23
3	Feyenoord	13	6	3	4	+7	+7.3	21
4	Twente	13	4	7	2	+8	+10.0	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	1	7	-3	+5.6	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	1	7	-9	-5.4	19
7	Ajax	13	3	8	2	+1	-5.0	17
8	Utrecht	14	4	5	5	+0	-2.8	17
9	Groningen	13	5	2	6	-4	+3.7	17
10	Heerenveen	12	5	1	6	-2	-0.9	16
11	For Sittard	14	4	2	8	-8	-12.4	14
12	Telstar	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.4	13
13	Excelsior	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.7	12
14	Go Ahead Eagles	13	2	5	6	-6	-17.4	11
15	Zwolle	14	1	6	7	-16	-16.7	9
16	NAC Breda	12	1	4	7	-11	-11.1	7
17	Volendam	13	1	2	10	-20	-18.9	5
18	Heracles	13	1	1	11	-26	-15.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.