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Super League
Referee: U Schnyder
Luzern
S S T T S
1–2
Full-time
Winterthur
T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern Winterthur
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
4,7
3,8
Scored
2,8
0,8
Conceded
1,8
3,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 21%
31%
10%
Points per game
1,2
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 79%
79%
79%
Both score Ø 74%
79%
69%
Average goals
3,8
3,8
Scored
2,0
1,1
Conceded
1,9
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-1,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,91 xG 1,42
69% Possession 31%
19 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 0
2 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luzern 7. · Winterthur 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 30 23 2 5 +38 +6.5 71
2 St. Gallen 29 16 6 7 +23 +9.2 54
3 Lugano 29 14 7 8 +10 -4.5 49
4 Basel 29 13 7 9 +4 +12.9 46
5 Sion 30 11 12 7 +9 +9.7 45
6 Young Boys 30 13 6 11 +5 -1.4 45
7 Luzern 29 9 9 11 +3 -0.3 36
8 Lausanne 30 9 9 12 -4 +4.8 36
9 Servette 29 7 12 10 -6 +1.9 33
10 Zurich 30 9 4 17 -17 -5.0 31
11 Grasshoppers 30 5 9 16 -18 -13.4 24
12 Winterthur 29 3 7 19 -47 -20.5 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luzern Winterthur
Oscar Kabwit 🟨
10′
1–0 M. Di Giusto
15′
16′
🟨 Fabian Rohner
32′
N. Burkart 1–1
A. Hunziker
37′
🔁 T. Citherlet
↦ R. Arnold
E. Sadikaj 🔁
↦ B. Freimann
41′
45′
T. Golliard 1–2
N. Burkart
Half-time 1–2
46′
🔁 L. Zuffi
↦ P. Kasami
46′
🔁 A. Jankewitz
↦ S. Cueni
49′
🟨 Theo Golliard
51′
🔁 F. Momoh
↦ N. Burkart
57′
🟨 Silvan Sidler
A. Ciganiks 🔁
↦ R. Dantas
64′
L. Villiger 🔁
↦ L. M. Silva Ferreira
64′
69′
🟨 Alexandre Jankewitz
S. Wyss 🔁
↦ O. Kabwit
75′
A. Grbic 🔁
↦ A. Vasovic
76′
80′
🔁 B. Dansoko
↦ F. Rohner
Lars Villiger 🟨
91′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Luzern

4-2-2-2
1 P. Loretz G
20 P. Dorn D
5 S. Knezevic D
46 B. Freimann D
22 R. Dantas D
24 T. Owusu M
6 T. Abe M
73 L. M. Silva Ferreira M
11 M. Di Giusto M
16 O. Kabwit F
19 A. Vasovic F
Bench (9)
90 V. Vasic
9 A. Grbic
14 A. Ciganiks
10 S. Karweina
27 L. Villiger
2 S. Ottiger
29 L. Winkler
39 S. Wyss
45 E. Sadikaj

Coach: Mario Frick

Winterthur

3-4-2-1
1 S. Kapino G
16 R. Arnold D
5 L. Muhl D
21 L. Luthi D
27 F. Rohner M
44 S. Cueni M
23 P. Kasami M
24 S. Sidler M
8 T. Golliard F
99 N. Burkart F
17 A. Hunziker F
Bench (9)
75 A. Spagnoli
7 L. Zuffi
45 A. Jankewitz
11 B. Dansoko
3 R. Smith
33 T. Citherlet
19 D. Ulrich
14 F. Momoh
37 E. Maluvunu

Coach: Patrick Rahmen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

U Schnyder · 151 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.