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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Milan

S U S S U

0–1

Full-time

Parma

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

60%

28%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

48%

36%

Both score Ø 48%

56%

40%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,54 xG 0,46

67% Possession 33%

25 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Parma 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	21	1	4	+41	+33.0	64
2	Milan	25	15	9	1	+22	+13.1	54
3	Napoli	26	15	5	6	+12	+8.3	50
4	Roma	25	15	2	8	+15	+8.3	47
5	Juventus	26	13	7	6	+18	+22.9	46
6	Como	26	12	9	5	+22	+16.6	45
7	Atalanta	26	12	9	5	+14	+9.2	45
8	Sassuolo	26	10	5	11	-3	-7.6	35
9	Lazio	26	8	10	8	+1	-8.3	34
10	Bologna	25	9	6	10	+2	-0.6	33
11	Udinese	25	9	5	11	-10	-6.4	32
12	Cagliari	26	7	8	11	-7	-12.7	29
13	Parma	25	7	8	10	-13	-14.3	29
14	Genoa	26	6	9	11	-5	-0.7	27
15	Torino	26	7	6	13	-22	-10.0	27
16	Cremonese	25	5	9	11	-12	-14.2	24
17	Lecce	26	6	6	14	-16	-17.4	24
18	Fiorentina	25	4	9	12	-10	+3.7	21
19	Pisa	25	1	12	12	-22	-13.8	15
20	Verona	26	2	9	15	-27	-9.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	10	1	2	+24	+20.1	31
2	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+11	+13.1	28
3	Napoli	12	8	4	0	+10	+1.2	28
4	Juventus	13	7	5	1	+13	+14.4	26
5	Roma	12	8	1	3	+10	+7.4	25
6	Milan	12	7	4	1	+8	+9.7	25
7	Como	13	6	5	2	+12	+11.6	23
8	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
9	Sassuolo	13	5	2	6	-4	-5.8	17
10	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	+0	-4.8	16
11	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-1	+0.7	16
12	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-0.5	16
13	Bologna	12	4	2	6	-2	+2.3	14
14	Torino	13	4	2	7	-9	-5.5	14
15	Parma	13	3	4	6	-8	-8.5	13
16	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-9	-4.0	13
17	Cremonese	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.6	12
18	Fiorentina	12	2	4	6	-2	+5.9	10
19	Verona	12	1	4	7	-8	-2.0	7
20	Pisa	13	1	4	8	-12	-5.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	0	2	+17	+12.9	33
2	Milan	13	8	5	0	+14	+3.3	29
3	Como	13	6	4	3	+10	+5.1	22
4	Roma	13	7	1	5	+5	+0.9	22
5	Napoli	14	7	1	6	+2	+7.2	22
6	Juventus	13	6	2	5	+5	+8.6	20
7	Bologna	13	5	4	4	+4	-2.9	19
8	Sassuolo	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.8	18
9	Atalanta	12	4	5	3	+3	-3.9	17
10	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-5	-5.9	16
11	Parma	12	4	4	4	-5	-5.8	16
12	Lazio	13	3	6	4	-1	-7.9	15
13	Cagliari	13	3	4	6	-7	-7.9	13
14	Torino	13	3	4	6	-13	-4.5	13
15	Cremonese	13	3	3	7	-8	-12.6	12
16	Genoa	12	2	5	5	-4	-1.4	11
17	Lecce	12	3	2	7	-7	-13.3	11
18	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.2	11
19	Pisa	12	0	8	4	-10	-8.6	8
20	Verona	14	1	5	8	-19	-7.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.