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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Roma

T S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Napoli

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 71%

75%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

0,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,52 xG 1,17

56% Possession 44%

8 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 3. · Napoli 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	13	8	4	1	+10	+5.0	28
2	Inter	13	9	0	4	+15	+13.3	27
3	Roma	12	9	0	3	+9	+2.9	27
4	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+8	+4.0	25
5	Bologna	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.1	24
6	Como	13	6	6	1	+12	+5.3	24
7	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+5	+8.1	23
8	Lazio	13	5	3	5	+5	-4.1	18
9	Udinese	13	5	3	5	-6	-2.2	18
10	Sassuolo	13	5	2	6	+0	-4.3	17
11	Atalanta	13	3	7	3	+2	+3.8	16
12	Cremonese	12	3	5	4	-3	-7.3	14
13	Torino	13	3	5	5	-11	-5.0	14
14	Lecce	13	3	4	6	-7	-6.7	13
15	Cagliari	13	2	5	6	-6	-8.4	11
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-7	+2.0	11
17	Parma	13	2	5	6	-8	-3.7	11
18	Pisa	13	1	7	5	-8	-4.6	10
19	Fiorentina	13	0	6	7	-11	-2.3	6
20	Verona	13	0	6	7	-12	+0.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+7	+0.3	16
2	Milan	7	5	1	1	+4	+3.5	16
3	Inter	7	5	0	2	+12	+9.4	15
4	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
5	Juventus	7	4	3	0	+6	+6.2	15
6	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+8	+2.4	13
7	Bologna	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.6	13
8	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.0	12
9	Atalanta	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.1	10
10	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.8	8
11	Torino	6	2	2	2	-5	-3.9	8
12	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.6	7
13	Cremonese	6	1	3	2	-2	-0.7	6
14	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.6	6
15	Pisa	7	1	3	3	-3	-1.5	6
16	Parma	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.4	6
17	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	+1.8	6
18	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
19	Verona	6	0	3	3	-3	+1.4	3
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.9	15
2	Milan	6	3	3	0	+6	+1.4	12
3	Inter	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.8	12
4	Bologna	7	3	2	2	+5	-1.6	11
5	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-2.7	10
6	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
7	Como	6	2	3	1	+4	+1.9	9
8	Napoli	6	3	0	3	+1	+3.7	9
9	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
10	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.0	8
11	Lecce	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.1	7
12	Atalanta	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.2	6
13	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.9	6
14	Torino	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.1	6
15	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
16	Lazio	7	1	2	4	-3	-6.5	5
17	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.3	5
18	Pisa	6	0	4	2	-5	-3.1	4
19	Fiorentina	7	0	4	3	-6	-2.2	4
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.