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Europa League
Referee: Nikola Dabanovic
Roma
S T S S S
2–1
Full-time
Midtjylland
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Midtjylland
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 4/10 matches
Win Ø 70%
50%
90%
Points per game
1,5
2,8
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
50%
60%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,1
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
1,0
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,84 xG 0,73
54% Possession 46%
13 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 6
2 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Roma Midtjylland
1–0 N. El Aynaoui ⚽
Z. Celik
7′
B. Cristante 🔁
↦ M. Kone
27′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 D. Osorio
↦ M. Gogorza
46′
🔁 Junior Brumado
↦ P. Bravo
Bryan Cristante 🟨
52′
60′
🔁 V. Byskov
↦ D. Castillo
E. Ferguson 🔁
↦ M. Soule
61′
S. El Shaarawy 🔁
↦ L. Pellegrini
61′
67′
🔁 Paulinho
↦ V. Bak
75′
🔁 A. Simsir
↦ Franculino
77′
🟨 Darío Osorio
K. Tsimikas 🔁
↦ Z. Celik
78′
L. Bailey 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
78′
80′
🟨 Martin Erlić
2–0 S. El Shaarawy ⚽
L. Bailey
83′
85′
🟨 Mads Bech Sørensen
86′
⚽ Paulinho 2–1
A. Simsir
Gianluca Mancini 🟨
89′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
87 D. Ghilardi D
5 E. Ndicka D
23 G. Mancini D
19 Z. Celik M
8 N. El Aynaoui M
17 M. Kone M
43 Wesley Franca M
18 M. Soule F
7 L. Pellegrini F
21 P. Dybala F
Bench (11)
70 G. De Marzi
95 P. Gollini
2 D. Rensch
4 B. Cristante
11 E. Ferguson
12 K. Tsimikas
22 M. Hermoso
24 J. Ziolkowski
31 L. Bailey
61 N. Pisilli
92 S. El Shaarawy

Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian

Midtjylland

3-4-3
16 E. Olafsson G
4 O. Diao D
6 M. Erlic D
22 M. Bech Sorensen D
43 K. Mbabu M
19 P. Bravo M
8 P. Billing M
55 V. Bak M
21 D. Castillo F
7 Franculino F
41 M. Gogorza F
Bench (12)
1 J. Lossl
60 M. Ugboh
3 Lee Han-Beom
10 Cho Gue-Sung
11 D. Osorio
20 V. Byskov
29 Paulinho
33 A. Djabi
58 A. Simsir
74 Junior Brumado
80 Dani Silva
90 F. Etim

Coach: Mike Tullberg

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.