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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Parma

U T U U S

0–1

Full-time

Lecce

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,6

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,59 xG 0,50

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 14. · Lecce 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	5	4	0	1	+6	+3.0	12
2	Napoli	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.2	12
3	Roma	5	4	0	1	+4	+1.4	12
4	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.7	11
5	Inter	5	3	0	2	+6	+5.3	9
6	Atalanta	5	2	3	0	+6	+2.7	9
7	Cremonese	5	2	3	0	+2	-2.5	9
8	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	+0	-2.6	9
9	Como	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.8	8
10	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.1	7
11	Bologna	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.8	7
12	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-3	-1.1	7
13	Lazio	5	2	0	3	+3	+1.1	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-3	+0.3	5
15	Torino	5	1	1	3	-8	-2.9	4
16	Fiorentina	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.7	3
17	Verona	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.5	3
18	Pisa	5	0	2	3	-3	-0.5	2
19	Genoa	5	0	2	3	-5	-0.3	2
20	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.3	7
2	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
4	Roma	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
5	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
6	Milan	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
7	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
8	Como	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.4	5
9	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
10	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
11	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
12	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
13	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+3	+3.1	3
14	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.4	2
15	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
16	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.4	1
17	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.9	1
18	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
19	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.2	1
20	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.7	6
3	Roma	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.2	6
5	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
6	Cremonese	3	1	2	0	+1	-3.8	5
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Inter	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
9	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.0	3
10	Como	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
11	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
12	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
13	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.1	3
14	Torino	3	1	0	2	-5	-1.7	3
15	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
17	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
18	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
19	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
20	Verona	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.