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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Milan

S T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Bologna

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 46%

46%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

49%

Both score Ø 56%

57%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,68 xG 0,63

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 9. · Bologna 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	35	23	8	4	+30	+20.2	77
2	Inter	35	22	8	5	+40	+31.6	74
3	Atalanta	35	20	8	7	+40	+26.2	68
4	Juventus	35	16	15	4	+20	+14.2	63
5	Roma	35	18	9	8	+18	+12.2	63
6	Lazio	35	18	9	8	+13	+15.9	63
7	Bologna	35	16	14	5	+15	+12.8	62
8	Fiorentina	35	17	8	10	+18	+5.9	59
9	Milan	35	16	9	10	+16	+19.8	57
10	Como	35	12	9	14	-3	+0.9	45
11	Torino	35	10	14	11	-1	-13.6	44
12	Udinese	35	12	8	15	-11	-9.6	44
13	Genoa	35	9	12	14	-13	-8.5	39
14	Cagliari	35	8	9	18	-15	-11.1	33
15	Parma	35	6	14	15	-14	-13.9	32
16	Verona	35	9	5	21	-33	-19.6	32
17	Lecce	35	6	9	20	-33	-22.8	27
18	Venezia	35	4	14	17	-21	-19.0	26
19	Empoli	35	4	13	18	-28	-18.3	25
20	Monza	35	2	9	24	-38	-23.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	3	2	+19	+15.8	42
2	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+17	+15.2	41
3	Roma	18	12	2	4	+20	+10.2	38
4	Bologna	18	10	7	1	+17	+14.5	37
5	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+14	+9.4	37
6	Fiorentina	18	11	4	3	+13	+8.5	37
7	Atalanta	17	8	5	4	+12	+11.1	29
8	Lazio	17	7	8	2	+8	+10.7	29
9	Milan	17	7	7	3	+10	+9.5	28
10	Como	17	7	5	5	+2	+2.1	26
11	Torino	17	6	7	4	+3	-5.0	25
12	Udinese	17	7	3	7	-3	-5.1	24
13	Genoa	18	5	7	6	-3	-2.3	22
14	Parma	18	5	5	8	-3	-0.9	20
15	Cagliari	18	5	4	9	-7	-2.2	19
16	Venezia	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.4	17
17	Lecce	18	3	6	9	-19	-8.6	15
18	Verona	17	4	3	10	-21	-5.9	15
19	Empoli	17	1	7	9	-16	-9.3	10
20	Monza	18	1	5	12	-16	-8.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	18	12	3	3	+28	+15.0	39
2	Napoli	18	10	6	2	+13	+5.0	36
3	Lazio	18	11	1	6	+5	+5.2	34
4	Inter	17	9	5	3	+21	+15.8	32
5	Milan	18	9	2	7	+6	+10.3	29
6	Juventus	17	6	8	3	+6	+4.9	26
7	Bologna	17	6	7	4	-2	-1.7	25
8	Roma	17	6	7	4	-2	+2.0	25
9	Fiorentina	17	6	4	7	+5	-2.6	22
10	Udinese	18	5	5	8	-8	-4.5	20
11	Torino	18	4	7	7	-4	-8.6	19
12	Como	18	5	4	9	-5	-1.2	19
13	Genoa	17	4	5	8	-10	-6.2	17
14	Verona	18	5	2	11	-12	-13.7	17
15	Empoli	18	3	6	9	-12	-9.0	15
16	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-8	-8.8	14
17	Parma	17	1	9	7	-11	-13.0	12
18	Lecce	17	3	3	11	-14	-14.2	12
19	Venezia	18	0	9	9	-16	-16.6	9
20	Monza	17	1	4	12	-22	-14.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.