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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Lecce

U U U U T

2–2

Full-time

Cagliari

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

17%

58%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

42%

Both score Ø 71%

75%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

2,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 2

The table before the match Lecce 17. · Cagliari 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	2	0	+13	35
2	Inter	13	11	1	1	+17	34
3	Lazio	13	8	3	2	+16	27
4	Roma	13	7	4	2	+9	25
5	Cagliari	12	7	3	2	+11	24
6	Atalanta	13	6	4	3	+10	22
7	Napoli	13	5	5	3	+6	20
8	Parma	13	5	3	5	+3	18
9	Verona	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Torino	13	4	2	7	-5	14
12	Milan	13	4	2	7	-5	14
13	Udinese	13	4	2	7	-11	14
14	Sassuolo	12	4	1	7	-1	13
15	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-4	13
16	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-10	10
18	Genoa	12	2	3	7	-12	9
19	Spal	12	2	2	8	-11	8
20	Brescia	12	2	1	9	-13	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	6	6	0	0	+7	18
2	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+12	14
3	Roma	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Inter	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Parma	7	4	0	3	+4	12
7	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Verona	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	+2	9
11	Sampdoria	7	2	3	2	-3	9
12	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Milan	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	Torino	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Atalanta	6	2	1	3	+3	7
17	Genoa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
18	Spal	6	2	1	3	-2	7
19	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Brescia	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	7	0	0	+11	21
2	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+6	17
3	Atalanta	7	4	3	0	+7	15
4	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Cagliari	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Roma	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Napoli	7	2	3	2	+2	9
8	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	-2	8
9	Lecce	7	2	2	3	-5	8
10	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Parma	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Torino	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Milan	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Brescia	7	2	0	5	-6	6
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Spal	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.