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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Lecce

U T S T T

0–0

Full-time

Genoa

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

39%

44%

Both score Ø 39%

33%

44%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

0,6

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,56 xG 1,08

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 18. · Genoa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	19	14	2	3	+18	+12.3	44
2	Atalanta	18	13	2	3	+23	+17.4	41
3	Inter	17	12	4	1	+30	+18.9	40
4	Lazio	18	11	2	5	+8	+10.6	35
5	Juventus	18	7	11	0	+15	+11.9	32
6	Fiorentina	18	9	5	4	+13	+7.4	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+4	+4.7	28
8	Milan	17	7	6	4	+9	+10.7	27
9	Udinese	19	7	4	8	-5	-8.8	25
10	Roma	18	5	5	8	+0	+1.2	20
11	Empoli	19	4	8	7	-4	-9.4	20
12	Torino	18	5	5	8	-5	-7.6	20
13	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-11	-9.3	19
14	Verona	19	6	1	12	-18	-12.8	19
15	Parma	18	4	6	8	-9	-12.9	18
16	Como	18	4	6	8	-10	+0.2	18
17	Cagliari	19	4	5	10	-14	-6.4	17
18	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-20	-10.7	16
19	Venezia	19	3	5	11	-14	-11.6	14
20	Monza	19	1	7	11	-10	-5.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	7	0	1	+14	+8.2	21
2	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+7	+9.6	21
3	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.6	20
4	Lazio	9	6	2	1	+5	+7.0	20
5	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	+7.3	17
6	Milan	9	4	4	1	+9	+7.6	16
7	Juventus	10	3	7	0	+6	+8.5	16
8	Roma	9	5	0	4	+8	+5.6	15
9	Bologna	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.3	13
10	Udinese	9	4	1	4	-2	-4.1	13
11	Como	8	3	3	2	-1	+2.3	12
12	Lecce	9	3	3	3	-8	-0.6	12
13	Venezia	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.0	11
14	Parma	10	3	2	5	-2	-4.6	11
15	Verona	10	3	1	6	-11	-4.3	10
16	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-10	-3.3	9
17	Torino	8	2	2	4	-3	-5.9	8
18	Empoli	9	1	4	4	-5	-3.5	7
19	Genoa	10	0	6	4	-7	-4.9	6
20	Monza	10	0	3	7	-7	-2.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.6	23
2	Inter	8	6	2	0	+19	+11.2	20
3	Atalanta	10	6	2	2	+9	+9.1	20
4	Juventus	8	4	4	0	+9	+3.4	16
5	Fiorentina	9	4	3	2	+8	+0.0	15
6	Lazio	9	5	0	4	+3	+3.5	15
7	Bologna	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.6	15
8	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
9	Genoa	8	4	1	3	-4	-4.4	13
10	Torino	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.6	12
11	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-3	-4.7	12
12	Milan	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
13	Verona	9	3	0	6	-7	-8.5	9
14	Cagliari	9	2	2	5	-4	-3.1	8
15	Monza	9	1	4	4	-3	-3.0	7
16	Parma	8	1	4	3	-7	-8.3	7
17	Como	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.0	6
18	Roma	9	0	5	4	-8	-4.4	5
19	Lecce	9	1	1	7	-12	-10.0	4
20	Venezia	10	0	3	7	-13	-13.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.