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Serie A
Referee: D Massa
Lecce
U T T U S
0–4
Full-time
Atalanta
T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,8
2,8
Scored
0,7
2,0
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,58 xG 1,74
47% Possession 53%
19 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 24
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Verona 1 1 0 0 +3 +0.9 3
2 Lazio 1 1 0 0 +2 +1.8 3
3 Milan 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.1 1
4 Torino 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.1 1
5 Genoa 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.1 1
6 Inter 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.1 1
7 Parma 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.1 1
8 Fiorentina 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.1 1
9 Bologna 1 0 1 0 +0 +2.3 1
10 Udinese 1 0 1 0 +0 -2.3 1
11 Cagliari 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.0 1
12 Roma 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.0 1
13 Empoli 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.1 1
14 Monza 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.1 1
15 Venezia 1 0 0 1 -2 -1.8 0
16 Napoli 1 0 0 1 -3 -0.9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. May -24 Lecce – Atalanta 0–2 30. Dec -23 Atalanta – Lecce 1–0 19. Feb -23 Atalanta – Lecce 1–2 9. Nov -22 Lecce – Atalanta 2–1 1. Mar -20 Lecce – Atalanta 2–7

Match report

Lecce Atalanta
35′
⚽ M. Brescianini 0–1
45′
⚽ M. Retegui 0–2
M. Ruggeri
Half-time 0–2
L. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ B. Pierret
46′
L. Banda 🔁
↦ Tete Morente
46′
56′
ℹ️ Mateo Retegui
VAR: Penalty confirmed
57′
⚽ M. Retegui 0–3
60′
🟨 Marten de Roon
66′
⚽ M. Brescianini 0–4
M. Pašalić
68′
🔁 B. Godfrey
↦ D. Zappacosta
S. Pierotti 🔁
↦ N. Krstović
69′
69′
🔁 M. Bakker
↦ C. De Ketelaere
F. Marchwiński 🔁
↦ Y. Ramadani
76′
80′
🟨 Éderson
M. Berisha 🔁
↦ H. Rafia
83′
83′
🔁 F. Cassa
↦ M. Retegui
89′
🔁 M. Palestra
↦ M. Brescianini
90′
🔁 I. Sulemana
↦ M. Pašalić
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Lecce

4-2-3-1
30 W. Falcone G
17 V. Gendrey D
4 Kialonda Gaspar D
6 F. Baschirotto D
25 A. Gallo D
20 Y. Ramadani M
75 B. Pierret M
7 Tete Morente M
8 H. Rafia M
13 P. Dorgu M
9 N. Krstović F
Bench (15)
29 L. Coulibaly
22 L. Banda
50 S. Pierotti
36 F. Marchwiński
5 M. Berisha
27 E. McJannet
28 S. Esposito
98 A. Borbei
23 R. Burnete
14 Þ. Helgason
2 A. Pelmard
10 R. Oudin
42 V. Addo
1 C. Früchtl
32 J. Samooja

Coach: L. Gotti

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
1 J. Musso G
15 M. de Roon D
4 I. Hien D
19 B. Djimsiti D
77 D. Zappacosta M
8 M. Pašalić M
13 Éderson M
22 M. Ruggeri M
44 M. Brescianini F
17 C. De Ketelaere F
32 M. Retegui F
Bench (12)
5 B. Godfrey
20 M. Bakker
25 F. Cassa
27 M. Palestra
6 I. Sulemana
41 P. Tornaghi
31 F. Rossi
40 P. Comi
46 A. Manzoni
47 L. Bernasconi
29 M. Carnesecchi
45 D. Vavassori

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,23
🔒
U
3,64
🔒
B ✓
1,87
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,93
🔒
U2,5
1,90
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.