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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Fiorentina

T S U S U

3–0

Full-time

Cagliari

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,16 xG 0,80

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 6. · Cagliari 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	0	1	+16	+10.1	18
2	Milan	7	6	0	1	+7	+5.1	18
3	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+10	+10.8	14
4	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.2	14
5	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.1	13
6	Fiorentina	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.0	11
7	Lecce	7	3	2	2	-1	-4.6	11
8	Bologna	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.5	10
9	Frosinone	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.6	9
10	Torino	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.2	9
11	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	-2	-4.3	9
12	Monza	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.1	9
13	Roma	7	2	2	3	+4	+4.2	8
14	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.2	8
15	Verona	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.7	8
16	Lazio	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.8	7
17	Udinese	7	0	4	3	-8	-1.9	4
18	Salernitana	7	0	3	4	-10	-7.9	3
19	Empoli	7	1	0	6	-15	-5.6	3
20	Cagliari	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+9	+6.8	9
2	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.6	9
3	Lecce	4	3	0	1	+0	-0.8	9
4	Roma	4	2	1	1	+8	+2.6	7
5	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.0	7
6	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
7	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.8	7
8	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
9	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+4	+6.6	6
10	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.5	6
11	Torino	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.7	6
12	Monza	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.5	5
13	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
14	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
15	Genoa	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
16	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.9	3
18	Udinese	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.3	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-7	-2.8	2
20	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+7	+3.3	9
2	Milan	4	3	0	1	+1	+0.5	9
3	Napoli	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.2	8
4	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
5	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.5	7
6	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.1	6
7	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.3	4
8	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
9	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
10	Bologna	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
11	Torino	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
12	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.8	3
13	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.0	3
14	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
15	Frosinone	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.1	2
16	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.1	2
17	Salernitana	3	0	1	2	-3	-5.1	1
18	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.4	1
19	Roma	3	0	1	2	-4	+1.6	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.