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Conference League
Referee: I Kružliak
Lille
U U S S T
2–1
Full-time
Aston Villa
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 64%
55%
73%
Points per game
2,0
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
45%
73%
Both score Ø 55%
55%
55%
Average goals
2,3
3,1
Scored
1,6
2,4
Conceded
0,6
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,47 xG 0,66
52% Possession 48%
12 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 7
3 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Apr -24 Aston Villa – Lille 2–1

Match report

Lille Aston Villa
1–0 Y. Yazıcı ⚽
G. Gudmundsson
15′
21′
🟨 Nicolò Zaniolo
28′
🔁 M. Rogers
↦ N. Zaniolo
39′
🟨 Emiliano Martínez
Nabil Bentaleb 🟨
42′
Benjamin André 🟨
43′
Half-time 1–0
Tiago Santos 🟨
61′
61′
🟨 Lucas Digne
2–0 B. André ⚽
H. Haraldsson
67′
68′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ M. Diaby
76′
🟨 Morgan Rogers
A. Gomes 🔁
↦ H. Haraldsson
77′
80′
🔁 J. Durán
↦ J. McGinn
Ivan Cavaleiro 🔁
↦ Y. Yazıcı
86′
87′
⚽ M. Cash 2–1
R. Cabella 🔁
↦ G. Gudmundsson
90′
91′
🟨 Jhon Durán
109′
🟨 Ollie Watkins
Angel Gomes 🟨
117′
121′
⚽ Y. Tielemans 2–2
N. Bentaleb ❌
penalty missed
122′
122′
🟨 Emiliano Martínez
123′
⚽ O. Watkins 2–3
3–3 J. David ⚽
124′
125′
⚽ M. Cash 3–4
4–4 A. Gomes ⚽
126′
127′
❌ L. Bailey
penalty missed
5–4 R. Cabella ⚽
128′
129′
⚽ Douglas Luiz 5–5
B. André ❌
penalty missed
130′
Full-time 5–5

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
22 Tiago Santos D
15 L. Yoro D
18 B. Diakité D
31 Ismaily D
21 B. André M
6 N. Bentaleb M
12 Y. Yazıcı M
7 H. Haraldsson M
5 G. Gudmundsson M
9 J. David F
Bench (11)
8 A. Gomes
17 Ivan Cavaleiro
10 R. Cabella
19 Tiago Morais
36 O. Touré
33 A. Bouaddi
11 A. Ounas
1 V. Mannone
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
40 T. Negrel
38 I. Ferrah

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Aston Villa

4-4-2
1 E. Martínez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 Pau Torres D
12 L. Digne D
7 J. McGinn M
8 Y. Tielemans M
6 Douglas Luiz M
22 N. Zaniolo M
19 M. Diaby F
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (11)
27 M. Rogers
31 L. Bailey
24 J. Durán
17 C. Lenglet
69 F. Munroe
71 O. Kellyman
18 J. Gauci
29 K. Kesler-Hayden
25 R. Olsen
3 Diego Carlos
47 T. Iroegbunam

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kružliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.