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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

S T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Twente

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Twente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 58%

55%

61%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

2,0

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,40 xG 1,52

50% Possession 50%

10 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Twente 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	32	28	3	1	+88	+66.0	87
2	Feyenoord	31	23	6	2	+56	+59.0	75
3	Twente	31	19	6	6	+28	+18.0	63
4	AZ Alkmaar	31	17	7	7	+27	+15.8	58
5	Ajax	32	14	10	8	+10	+9.5	52
6	Nijmegen	30	12	10	8	+12	-13.7	46
7	Utrecht	31	12	10	9	+2	-4.5	46
8	Sparta Rotterdam	32	12	7	13	+1	-8.2	43
9	Go Ahead Eagles	30	11	9	10	+4	-5.3	42
10	Heerenveen	32	10	7	15	-14	-5.9	37
11	For Sittard	32	9	9	14	-19	+2.5	36
12	Zwolle	31	9	8	14	-16	-11.9	35
13	Almere City	32	7	13	12	-20	-15.6	34
14	Heracles	32	9	5	18	-29	-23.2	32
15	Waalwijk	32	7	7	18	-16	-12.5	28
16	Excelsior	31	5	11	15	-20	-13.4	26
17	Vitesse	32	5	5	22	-46	-24.2	20
18	Volendam	32	4	7	21	-48	-32.5	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	1	0	+41	+35.9	46
2	Twente	16	13	1	2	+18	+16.2	40
3	Feyenoord	15	11	3	1	+32	+32.7	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	2	3	+22	+16.9	32
5	Ajax	16	8	6	2	+15	+11.6	30
6	Nijmegen	15	8	3	4	+11	+2.4	27
7	For Sittard	16	7	5	4	+7	+13.8	26
8	Utrecht	15	7	5	3	+6	+2.2	26
9	Go Ahead Eagles	16	7	4	5	+11	+5.4	25
10	Heerenveen	16	6	3	7	-4	+3.9	21
11	Heracles	16	6	3	7	-10	-7.4	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	16	5	5	6	-1	+2.1	20
13	Zwolle	16	5	3	8	-11	+2.9	18
14	Waalwijk	16	4	5	7	-5	-2.6	17
15	Excelsior	15	3	7	5	-2	+2.5	16
16	Almere City	16	3	7	6	-9	-5.0	16
17	Vitesse	16	2	5	9	-15	-6.7	11
18	Volendam	16	3	2	11	-27	-9.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	13	2	1	+47	+30.1	41
2	Feyenoord	16	12	3	1	+24	+26.4	39
3	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.2	26
4	Twente	15	6	5	4	+10	+1.7	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	16	7	2	7	+2	-10.3	23
6	Ajax	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.1	22
7	Utrecht	16	5	5	6	-4	-6.7	20
8	Nijmegen	15	4	7	4	+1	-16.1	19
9	Almere City	16	4	6	6	-11	-10.6	18
10	Zwolle	15	4	5	6	-5	-14.8	17
11	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	5	5	-7	-10.7	17
12	Heerenveen	16	4	4	8	-10	-9.8	16
13	Waalwijk	16	3	2	11	-11	-9.8	11
14	Heracles	16	3	2	11	-19	-15.7	11
15	Excelsior	16	2	4	10	-18	-15.9	10
16	For Sittard	16	2	4	10	-26	-11.3	10
17	Vitesse	16	3	0	13	-31	-17.6	9
18	Volendam	16	1	5	10	-21	-23.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.