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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Brighton

S T U T U

0–4

Full-time

Man City

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

4,3

Scored

0,7

3,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 52%

34%

69%

Points per game

1,4

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 69%

72%

66%

Average goals

3,2

3,4

Scored

1,6

2,4

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,62 xG 1,36

35% Possession 65%

7 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 3

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 11. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	34	24	5	5	+56	+44.4	77
2	Liverpool	34	22	8	4	+41	+37.2	74
3	Man City	32	22	7	3	+44	+37.5	73
4	Aston Villa	34	20	6	8	+21	+7.0	66
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Man United	33	16	5	12	+1	-10.1	53
7	Newcastle	33	15	5	13	+15	+7.1	50
8	West Ham	34	13	9	12	-9	-16.0	48
9	Chelsea	32	13	8	11	+4	+12.6	47
10	Bournemouth	34	12	9	13	-11	-1.0	45
11	Brighton	32	11	11	10	+2	+1.5	44
12	Wolves	34	12	7	15	-8	-13.3	43
13	Fulham	34	12	6	16	-4	-9.3	42
14	Everton	34	11	8	15	-12	-1.2	41
15	Crystal Palace	34	10	9	15	-12	-7.5	39
16	Brentford	34	9	8	17	-7	+5.6	35
17	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-18	-4.4	30
18	Luton	34	6	7	21	-28	-33.4	25
19	Burnley	34	5	8	21	-32	-25.3	23
20	Sheffield United	34	3	7	24	-59	-33.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+28	+25.6	41
4	Aston Villa	17	12	2	3	+20	+12.2	38
5	Newcastle	17	11	3	3	+23	+19.4	36
6	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
7	Man United	16	9	2	5	+3	+1.8	29
8	Fulham	17	9	1	7	+11	+2.8	28
9	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+10	+16.8	28
10	Brighton	15	7	6	2	+9	+5.2	27
11	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+1	-5.5	25
12	Bournemouth	17	6	6	5	-3	+2.5	24
13	Wolves	17	7	3	7	-3	-6.9	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	+2	+3.5	22
15	Everton	17	6	4	7	+2	+8.0	22
16	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	+0	+1.9	20
18	Luton	17	4	3	10	-7	-5.6	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	17	2	4	11	-33	-12.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+28	+18.8	36
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
3	Liverpool	17	9	5	3	+13	+5.6	32
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	17	7	2	8	-10	-10.6	23
8	Bournemouth	17	6	3	8	-8	-3.6	21
9	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
10	Chelsea	16	5	4	7	-6	-4.2	19
11	Everton	17	5	4	8	-14	-9.2	19
12	Brighton	17	4	5	8	-7	-3.7	17
13	Crystal Palace	17	4	5	8	-14	-11.0	17
14	Brentford	17	4	2	11	-4	+0.8	14
15	Newcastle	16	4	2	10	-8	-12.3	14
16	Fulham	17	3	5	9	-15	-12.1	14
17	Burnley	17	3	4	10	-12	-21.2	13
18	Nott'm Forest	17	2	4	11	-18	-6.3	10
19	Luton	17	2	4	11	-21	-27.8	10
20	Sheffield United	17	1	3	13	-26	-21.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.