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Taça de Portugal

Ferreiras

2–0

Full-time

Culatrense

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Beira-Mar	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Praiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Lajense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Bragança	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Oriental Dragon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Pombal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
74	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
75	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
76	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Lajense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Bragança	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Oriental Dragon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Pombal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
38	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Praiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
37	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
38	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

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Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

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U1,5

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O2,5

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U2,5 ✓

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O3,5

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U3,5 ✓

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Both teams to score

BLS ja

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BLS nei ✓

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Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Odds comparison

Recent matches