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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Milan

U S S U S

5–1

Full-time

Bologna

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 39%

45%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

52%

64%

Both score Ø 67%

55%

79%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

51% Possession 49%

17 Shots 8

14 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Bologna 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	33	24	5	4	+35	77
2	Atalanta	34	21	8	5	+50	71
3	Inter	33	21	8	4	+38	71
4	Lazio	33	21	6	6	+33	69
5	Roma	33	17	6	10	+17	57
6	Napoli	33	15	8	10	+9	53
7	Milan	33	15	8	10	+6	53
8	Sassuolo	34	13	9	12	+5	48
9	Verona	34	11	12	11	+0	45
10	Bologna	33	11	10	12	-5	43
11	Cagliari	34	10	12	12	-1	42
12	Parma	33	11	7	15	-2	40
13	Fiorentina	33	9	12	12	-4	39
14	Sampdoria	33	11	5	17	-12	38
15	Torino	33	11	4	18	-19	37
16	Udinese	33	9	9	15	-15	36
17	Genoa	33	7	9	17	-23	30
18	Lecce	33	7	8	18	-33	29
19	Brescia	33	5	6	22	-40	21
20	Spal	33	5	4	24	-39	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	2	0	+28	44
2	Lazio	17	12	3	2	+26	39
3	Atalanta	17	11	2	4	+26	35
4	Inter	17	10	5	2	+21	35
5	Roma	17	9	3	5	+8	30
6	Verona	17	8	5	4	+5	29
7	Milan	16	7	5	4	+4	26
8	Sassuolo	16	7	3	6	+8	24
9	Napoli	16	7	3	6	+2	24
10	Torino	17	7	3	7	-6	24
11	Cagliari	17	6	4	7	+3	22
12	Sampdoria	17	6	4	7	-1	22
13	Udinese	17	5	6	6	-5	21
14	Parma	16	6	2	8	+3	20
15	Bologna	17	4	7	6	-5	19
16	Fiorentina	17	3	8	6	-6	17
17	Genoa	16	5	1	10	-8	16
18	Lecce	17	3	5	9	-12	14
19	Brescia	16	2	4	10	-13	10
20	Spal	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	17	10	6	1	+24	36
2	Inter	16	11	3	2	+17	36
3	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+7	33
4	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+7	30
5	Napoli	17	8	5	4	+7	29
6	Roma	16	8	3	5	+9	27
7	Milan	17	8	3	6	+2	27
8	Bologna	16	7	3	6	+0	24
9	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	-3	24
10	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+2	22
11	Cagliari	17	4	8	5	-4	20
12	Parma	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	Verona	17	3	7	7	-5	16
14	Sampdoria	16	5	1	10	-11	16
15	Udinese	16	4	3	9	-10	15
16	Lecce	16	4	3	9	-21	15
17	Genoa	17	2	8	7	-15	14
18	Torino	16	4	1	11	-13	13
19	Brescia	17	3	2	12	-27	11
20	Spal	17	3	1	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.