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Serie A

Referee: Marco Di Bello

Milan

U T S U T

2–1

Full-time

Bologna

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 35%

44%

26%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

53%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

47%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 10

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 2

The table before the match Milan 7. · Bologna 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	35	28	5	2	+44	89
2	Napoli	35	22	7	6	+35	73
3	Inter	35	18	9	8	+24	63
4	Atalanta	35	18	8	9	+28	62
5	Roma	35	16	11	8	+15	59
6	Torino	35	14	15	6	+15	57
7	Milan	34	15	11	8	+14	56
8	Lazio	35	16	7	12	+11	55
9	Sampdoria	35	14	7	14	+8	49
10	Sassuolo	35	9	15	11	-4	42
11	Spal	35	11	9	15	-9	42
12	Fiorentina	35	8	16	11	+4	40
13	Cagliari	35	10	10	15	-16	40
14	Parma	35	9	11	15	-17	38
15	Bologna	34	9	10	15	-11	37
16	Genoa	35	8	12	15	-17	36
17	Udinese	35	8	10	17	-18	34
18	Empoli	35	8	8	19	-22	32
19	Frosinone	35	5	9	21	-36	24
20	Chievo	35	2	12	21	-48	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	15	3	0	+26	48
2	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+22	40
3	Roma	17	10	5	2	+14	35
4	Milan	17	10	4	3	+11	34
5	Inter	17	9	5	3	+14	32
6	Torino	17	10	2	5	+10	32
7	Lazio	18	9	4	5	+11	31
8	Cagliari	17	8	6	3	+5	30
9	Atalanta	17	8	5	4	+14	29
10	Sampdoria	17	9	2	6	+11	29
11	Empoli	18	8	3	7	+0	27
12	Udinese	18	7	5	6	-1	26
13	Bologna	17	7	4	6	+2	25
14	Genoa	18	6	7	5	-1	25
15	Sassuolo	18	5	9	4	+0	24
16	Fiorentina	17	5	8	4	+7	23
17	Spal	17	5	7	5	-4	22
18	Parma	18	4	7	7	-8	19
19	Chievo	18	1	6	11	-23	9
20	Frosinone	17	1	5	11	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+18	41
2	Atalanta	18	10	3	5	+14	33
3	Napoli	17	10	3	4	+13	33
4	Inter	18	9	4	5	+10	31
5	Torino	18	4	13	1	+5	25
6	Roma	18	6	6	6	+1	24
7	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+0	24
8	Milan	17	5	7	5	+3	22
9	Sampdoria	18	5	5	8	-3	20
10	Spal	18	6	2	10	-5	20
11	Parma	17	5	4	8	-9	19
12	Sassuolo	17	4	6	7	-4	18
13	Fiorentina	18	3	8	7	-3	17
14	Frosinone	18	4	4	10	-14	16
15	Bologna	17	2	6	9	-13	12
16	Genoa	17	2	5	10	-16	11
17	Cagliari	18	2	4	12	-21	10
18	Chievo	17	1	6	10	-25	9
19	Udinese	17	1	5	11	-17	8
20	Empoli	17	0	5	12	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.