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Serie A
Referee: G Calvarese
Sampdoria
S U T T U
1–2
Full-time
Milan
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 56%
33%
78%
Points per game
1,2
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
78%
67%
Both score Ø 62%
67%
56%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,6
2,3
Conceded
1,7
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+1,4
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

37% Possession 63%
6 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 6
1 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sampdoria 12. · Milan 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Milan 9 7 2 0 +13 23
2 Napoli 9 7 0 2 +17 21
3 Inter 10 6 3 1 +12 21
4 Sassuolo 10 5 4 1 +8 19
5 Roma 10 5 3 2 +4 18
6 Juventus 9 4 5 0 +9 17
7 Lazio 10 5 2 3 -1 17
8 Verona 10 4 4 2 +5 16
9 Atalanta 9 4 2 3 +2 14
10 Bologna 10 4 0 6 -2 12
11 Cagliari 10 3 3 4 -3 12
12 Sampdoria 9 3 2 4 -1 11
13 Benevento 10 3 2 5 -9 11
14 Udinese 9 3 1 5 -2 10
15 Spezia 10 2 4 4 -5 10
16 Parma 10 2 4 4 -7 10
17 Fiorentina 9 2 2 5 -5 8
18 Torino 10 1 3 6 -7 6
19 Genoa 9 1 2 6 -10 5
20 Crotone 10 0 2 8 -18 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sampdoria Milan
5′
🟨 Franck Kessié
O. Colley 🔁
↦ B. Bereszyński
20′
Adrien Silva 🟨
26′
Jakub Jankto 🟨
45′
45′
F. Kessié 0–1
Half-time 0–1
M. Damsgaard 🔁
↦ J. Jankto
46′
A. Ekdal 🔁
↦ Adrien Silva
46′
46′
🔁 J. Hauge
↦ Brahim Díaz
A. La Gumina 🔁
↦ M. Gabbiadini
57′
76′
🔁 Samu Castillejo
↦ A. Saelemaekers
77′
Samu Castillejo 0–2
A. Rebić
M. Léris 🔁
↦ T. Augello
82′
1–2 A. Ekdal
M. Damsgaard
82′
90′
🔁 R. Krunić
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Sampdoria

4-4-2
1 E. Audero G
24 B. Bereszyński D
21 L. Tonelli D
3 T. Augello D
25 A. Ferrari D
5 Adrien Silva M
87 A. Candreva M
18 M. Thorsby M
14 J. Jankto M
27 F. Quagliarella F
23 M. Gabbiadini F
Bench (12)
15 O. Colley
38 M. Damsgaard
6 A. Ekdal
20 A. La Gumina
26 M. Léris
34 K. Letica
11 G. Ramírez
30 N. Ravaglia
2 Kaique Rocha
19 V. Regini
22 M. Yoshida
8 V. Verre

Coach: C. Ranieri

Milan

4-2-3-1
99 G. Donnarumma G
13 A. Romagnoli D
2 D. Calabria D
19 T. Hernández D
46 M. Gabbia D
10 H. Çalhanoğlu M
79 F. Kessié M
56 A. Saelemaekers M
8 S. Tonali M
12 A. Rebić F
21 Brahim Díaz M
Bench (12)
15 J. Hauge
7 Samu Castillejo
33 R. Krunić
29 L. Colombo
27 D. Maldini
90 A. Donnarumma
14 A. Conti
88 A. Mionić
1 C. Tătărușanu
43 Léo Duarte
20 P. Kalulu
5 Diogo Dalot

Coach: S. Pioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,46
U
3,90
B ✓
1,76
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,67
U2,5
2,20
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Calvarese · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.