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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Crotone

T T U T T

0–4

Full-time

Napoli

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

0,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

44%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

2,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%

4 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crotone 20. · Napoli 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Inter	10	6	3	1	+12	21
3	Sassuolo	10	5	4	1	+8	19
4	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+13	18
5	Roma	10	5	3	2	+4	18
6	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+9	17
7	Lazio	10	5	2	3	-1	17
8	Verona	10	4	4	2	+5	16
9	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Bologna	10	4	0	6	-2	12
11	Cagliari	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Sampdoria	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Benevento	10	3	2	5	-9	11
14	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-2	10
15	Spezia	10	2	4	4	-5	10
16	Parma	10	2	4	4	-7	10
17	Fiorentina	9	2	2	5	-5	8
18	Torino	10	1	3	6	-7	6
19	Genoa	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Crotone	9	0	2	7	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	5	3	2	0	+8	11
2	Milan	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Verona	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Inter	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+9	9
7	Bologna	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Cagliari	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Sassuolo	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Parma	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Lazio	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Genoa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
18	Torino	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-7	2
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Milan	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+3	12
4	Inter	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
7	Spezia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Juventus	5	1	4	0	+3	7
9	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Benevento	5	2	1	2	-3	7
11	Roma	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Verona	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Udinese	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Parma	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-5	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-7	2
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.