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Serie A

Referee: P Valeri

Napoli

S S S T S

1–3

Full-time

Milan

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 6/7 matches

Win Ø 77%

83%

71%

Points per game

2,5

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

50%

71%

Both score Ø 45%

33%

57%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

2,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

16 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 4. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	8	5	3	0	+11	18
2	Milan	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Roma	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+11	15
5	Inter	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Atalanta	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+0	14
8	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+8	13
9	Verona	8	3	3	2	+3	12
10	Sampdoria	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	Cagliari	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Bologna	8	3	0	5	-1	9
13	Spezia	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	Benevento	8	3	0	5	-9	9
15	Fiorentina	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Udinese	8	2	1	5	-4	7
17	Parma	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Torino	8	1	2	5	-6	5
19	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Crotone	8	0	2	6	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Verona	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Milan	4	2	2	0	+5	8
4	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Inter	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+7	6
7	Sassuolo	4	1	3	0	+3	6
8	Bologna	4	2	0	2	+2	6
9	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Parma	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Lazio	4	1	2	1	-2	5
14	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Benevento	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	Spezia	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Torino	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
3	Milan	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Inter	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Spezia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Roma	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Juventus	4	1	3	0	+3	6
10	Sampdoria	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Benevento	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Torino	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-5	4
14	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Fiorentina	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-7	2
18	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Parma	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.