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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Fiorentina

T S U T T

0–1

Full-time

Lecce

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 23%

31%

15%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

62%

69%

Both score Ø 73%

69%

77%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

13 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 11. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	2	0	+13	35
2	Inter	13	11	1	1	+17	34
3	Lazio	13	8	3	2	+16	27
4	Atalanta	14	7	4	3	+13	25
5	Cagliari	13	7	4	2	+11	25
6	Roma	13	7	4	2	+9	25
7	Napoli	13	5	5	3	+6	20
8	Parma	13	5	3	5	+3	18
9	Verona	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Torino	14	5	2	7	-4	17
11	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Milan	13	4	2	7	-5	14
13	Udinese	13	4	2	7	-11	14
14	Sassuolo	12	4	1	7	-1	13
15	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-4	13
16	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Lecce	13	2	5	6	-10	11
18	Genoa	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Spal	13	2	3	8	-11	9
20	Brescia	13	2	1	10	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	6	6	0	0	+7	18
2	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+12	14
3	Roma	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Inter	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Parma	7	4	0	3	+4	12
7	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Verona	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	+2	9
11	Sampdoria	7	2	3	2	-3	9
12	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Spal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Milan	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Torino	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Atalanta	6	2	1	3	+3	7
18	Genoa	7	2	1	4	-2	7
19	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-5	3
20	Brescia	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	7	0	0	+11	21
2	Atalanta	8	5	3	0	+10	18
3	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+6	17
4	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	3	3	0	+5	12
6	Roma	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Napoli	7	2	3	2	+2	9
8	Torino	7	3	0	4	-1	9
9	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Lecce	7	2	2	3	-5	8
11	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Parma	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Milan	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Brescia	7	2	0	5	-6	6
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-11	3
20	Spal	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.