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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Lazio

U U S S S

4–2

Full-time

Lecce

T U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 37%

55%

18%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

73%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

55%

73%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 2

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 5. · Lecce 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	1	1	+14	31
2	Juventus	11	9	2	0	+10	29
3	Cagliari	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+8	22
5	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+13	21
6	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+12	21
7	Napoli	12	5	4	3	+6	19
8	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	-1	16
9	Verona	12	4	3	5	-1	15
10	Parma	11	4	2	5	+1	14
11	Torino	12	4	2	6	-2	14
12	Sassuolo	11	4	1	6	+0	13
13	Milan	11	4	1	6	-4	13
14	Udinese	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Bologna	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Lecce	11	2	4	5	-8	10
17	Genoa	12	2	3	7	-12	9
18	Sampdoria	11	2	2	7	-12	8
19	Brescia	11	2	1	8	-10	7
20	Spal	11	2	1	8	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+6	15
2	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	+6	13
3	Inter	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Lazio	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Roma	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	+3	9
8	Parma	6	3	0	3	+2	9
9	Udinese	6	3	0	3	-4	9
10	Verona	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+5	7
14	Bologna	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Genoa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Spal	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	Milan	6	2	1	3	-3	7
18	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	-4	5
19	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Brescia	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	6	0	0	+8	18
2	Atalanta	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Juventus	6	4	2	0	+4	14
4	Roma	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Cagliari	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Napoli	6	2	2	2	+2	8
8	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-3	8
10	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Milan	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Torino	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Brescia	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Spal	5	0	0	5	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.