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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Osasuna

T T U U S

1–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Osasuna Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 35%

32%

38%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

43%

68%

Both score Ø 64%

49%

78%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,95 xG 1,56

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 6

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Osasuna 11. · Villarreal 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	37	29	7	1	+61	+34.8	94
2	Barcelona	37	25	7	5	+34	+37.2	82
3	Girona	38	25	6	7	+39	+16.6	81
4	Ath Madrid	37	23	4	10	+25	+21.3	73
5	Ath Bilbao	37	18	11	8	+23	+11.1	65
6	Sociedad	37	16	12	9	+14	+5.2	60
7	Betis	37	14	14	9	+3	-5.4	56
8	Villarreal	37	14	10	13	+0	-3.5	52
9	Valencia	37	13	9	15	-5	-4.8	48
10	Alaves	37	12	9	16	-10	+0.4	45
11	Osasuna	37	12	8	17	-11	-8.4	44
12	Getafe	37	10	13	14	-11	-7.4	43
13	Sevilla	37	10	11	16	-5	-11.8	41
14	Celta	37	10	10	17	-11	-4.1	40
15	Las Palmas	37	10	9	18	-14	-21.9	39
16	Vallecano	37	8	14	15	-18	-2.3	38
17	Mallorca	37	7	16	14	-12	-3.5	37
18	Cadiz	37	6	15	16	-24	-13.9	33
19	Granada	38	4	9	25	-41	-23.4	21
20	Almeria	37	2	12	23	-37	-16.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	16	2	0	+39	+25.6	50
2	Ath Madrid	19	16	1	2	+20	+18.2	49
3	Girona	19	15	2	2	+33	+15.6	47
4	Barcelona	19	15	1	3	+22	+21.1	46
5	Ath Bilbao	19	12	6	1	+24	+16.5	42
6	Betis	19	9	7	3	+8	+8.1	34
7	Alaves	19	9	4	6	+4	+7.4	31
8	Sociedad	18	8	6	4	+8	+4.6	30
9	Valencia	19	8	6	5	+6	+5.0	30
10	Getafe	18	8	5	5	-1	+2.6	29
11	Villarreal	19	7	5	7	+4	+7.8	26
12	Mallorca	19	6	8	5	+1	+1.4	26
13	Cadiz	19	5	9	5	-3	+4.9	24
14	Sevilla	18	6	5	7	+1	-2.3	23
15	Las Palmas	18	6	5	7	+0	-5.4	23
16	Celta	18	6	5	7	-2	+11.6	23
17	Osasuna	18	6	4	8	-7	-0.1	22
18	Vallecano	18	4	8	6	-7	+0.4	20
19	Granada	19	4	6	9	-8	-1.8	18
20	Almeria	18	0	8	10	-19	-0.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	13	5	1	+22	+9.1	44
2	Barcelona	18	10	6	2	+12	+16.1	36
3	Girona	19	10	4	5	+6	+1.1	34
4	Sociedad	19	8	6	5	+6	+0.6	30
5	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-4	-11.2	26
6	Ath Madrid	18	7	3	8	+5	+3.2	24
7	Ath Bilbao	18	6	5	7	-1	-5.5	23
8	Osasuna	19	6	4	9	-4	-8.3	22
9	Betis	18	5	7	6	-5	-13.4	22
10	Sevilla	19	4	6	9	-6	-9.6	18
11	Valencia	18	5	3	10	-11	-9.8	18
12	Vallecano	19	4	6	9	-11	-2.7	18
13	Celta	19	4	5	10	-9	-15.7	17
14	Las Palmas	19	4	4	11	-14	-16.5	16
15	Getafe	19	2	8	9	-10	-10.1	14
16	Alaves	18	3	5	10	-14	-7.0	14
17	Mallorca	18	1	8	9	-13	-4.9	11
18	Almeria	19	2	4	13	-18	-15.6	10
19	Cadiz	18	1	6	11	-21	-18.8	9
20	Granada	19	0	3	16	-33	-21.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.