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La Liga

Referee: José Sánchez

Real Madrid

U T S S S

0–4

Full-time

Barcelona

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

4,3

Scored

2,2

3,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 80%

70%

90%

Points per game

2,4

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

40%

90%

Both score Ø 65%

60%

70%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

2,1

3,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,48 xG 2,58

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 3

12 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	+23	+14.2	27
2	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+14	+9.1	24
3	Villarreal	11	6	3	2	+1	+3.5	21
4	Ath Madrid	10	5	5	0	+10	+9.4	20
5	Ath Bilbao	10	5	2	3	+6	+1.8	17
6	Mallorca	10	5	2	3	+2	+3.8	17
7	Vallecano	11	4	4	3	+2	-1.6	16
8	Betis	10	4	3	3	+1	+5.9	15
9	Osasuna	10	4	3	3	-2	-2.2	15
10	Sevilla	11	4	3	4	-3	-2.1	15
11	Celta	10	4	1	5	+0	+2.2	13
12	Sociedad	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.1	12
13	Girona	11	3	3	5	-3	+1.8	12
14	Alaves	11	3	1	7	-6	-4.3	10
15	Espanol	11	3	1	7	-9	-10.0	10
16	Getafe	10	1	6	3	-1	+1.5	9
17	Las Palmas	11	2	3	6	-6	-9.2	9
18	Leganes	10	1	5	4	-6	-9.6	8
19	Valladolid	11	2	2	7	-14	-7.3	8
20	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-9	-8.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+11	+7.5	15
2	Osasuna	6	4	1	1	+4	+2.1	13
3	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+13	+8.4	12
4	Ath Madrid	5	3	2	0	+8	+10.3	11
5	Ath Bilbao	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.0	11
6	Celta	6	3	1	2	+3	+2.4	10
7	Betis	5	3	1	1	+3	+5.9	10
8	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.9	9
9	Espanol	6	3	0	3	-1	-1.0	9
10	Vallecano	5	2	2	1	+2	+2.8	8
11	Mallorca	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.2	8
12	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	-1	-0.5	8
13	Getafe	5	1	4	0	+2	+3.9	7
14	Girona	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.2	7
15	Alaves	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.0	7
16	Las Palmas	6	1	3	2	-1	-3.8	6
17	Valencia	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.2	5
18	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.4	5
19	Sociedad	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.1	4
20	Leganes	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+10	+5.8	15
2	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+2	+4.0	13
3	Real Madrid	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.6	9
4	Ath Madrid	5	2	3	0	+2	-0.9	9
5	Mallorca	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.6	9
6	Sociedad	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.0	8
7	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.4	8
8	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
9	Sevilla	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.0	6
10	Betis	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.0	5
11	Girona	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.6	5
12	Leganes	6	0	4	2	-4	-9.0	4
13	Celta	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.2	3
14	Alaves	6	1	0	5	-5	-1.3	3
15	Las Palmas	5	1	0	4	-5	-5.4	3
16	Valladolid	5	1	0	4	-12	-5.8	3
17	Getafe	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
18	Osasuna	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.3	2
19	Espanol	5	0	1	4	-8	-8.9	1
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	-7.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.