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Champions League
Referee: I Kovács
Real Madrid
S U T S S
5–2
Full-time
Dortmund
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,0
4,8
Scored
2,0
3,0
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
5,5
Scored
1,5
5,0
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+4,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,55 xG 1,58
52% Possession 48%
26 Shots 8
10 Shots on target 7
8 Blocked shots 0
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Corners 4
10 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. Jun -24 Dortmund – Real Madrid 0–2

Match report

Real Madrid Dortmund
30′
⚽ D. Malen 0–1
S. Guirassy
34′
⚽ J. Gittens 0–2
D. Malen
Half-time 0–2
55′
🔁 W. Anton
↦ J. Gittens
1–2 A. Rüdiger ⚽
K. Mbappé
60′
2–2 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
62′
Vinícius Júnior ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
63′
64′
🔁 P. Groß
↦ D. Malen
E. Camavinga 🔁
↦ L. Modrić
71′
76′
🔁 E. Can
↦ J. Ryerson
76′
🔁 M. Beier
↦ F. Nmecha
3–2 Lucas Vázquez ⚽
83′
A. Tchouaméni 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
85′
4–2 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
J. Bellingham
86′
Vinícius Júnior 🟨
87′
Dani Ceballos 🔁
↦ K. Mbappé
90′
A. Güler 🔁
↦ J. Bellingham
90′
5–2 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
93′
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
3 Éder Militão D
22 A. Rüdiger D
23 F. Mendy D
5 J. Bellingham M
8 F. Valverde M
10 L. Modrić M
11 Rodrygo F
9 K. Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (9)
6 E. Camavinga
14 A. Tchouaméni
19 Dani Ceballos
15 A. Güler
13 A. Lunin
18 Jesús Vallejo
16 Endrick
20 Fran García
26 Fran González

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
25 N. Süle D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
5 R. Bensebaini D
20 M. Sabitzer M
8 F. Nmecha M
21 D. Malen M
10 J. Brandt M
43 J. Gittens M
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (11)
3 W. Anton
13 P. Groß
23 E. Can
14 M. Beier
46 A. Azhil
39 F. Mané
37 C. Campbell
33 A. Meyer
38 K. Wätjen
42 A. Kabar
35 M. Lotka

Coach: N. Şahin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovács · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.