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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

NAC Breda

S T T S S

4–1

Full-time

Waalwijk

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

44%

Points per game

1,3

0,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

56%

78%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,6

3,4

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,35 xG 0,51

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match NAC Breda 10. · Waalwijk 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+29	+15.7	30
2	Utrecht	8	7	1	0	+7	-0.7	22
3	Feyenoord	8	4	4	0	+11	+8.0	16
4	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+10	+10.7	16
5	Twente	9	4	3	2	+7	+10.6	15
6	For Sittard	10	4	2	4	-4	+0.1	14
7	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.7	13
8	Go Ahead Eagles	9	4	1	4	-4	+5.6	13
9	Willem II	9	3	3	3	+2	-6.3	12
10	NAC Breda	9	4	0	5	-7	-5.9	12
11	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.7	11
12	Nijmegen	10	3	1	6	+0	-2.7	10
13	Groningen	10	2	3	5	-2	-5.8	9
14	Heracles	9	2	3	4	-7	-7.8	9
15	Heerenveen	8	2	2	4	-2	+0.1	8
16	Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-10	-8.9	8
17	Almere City	10	1	3	6	-16	-6.5	6
18	Waalwijk	9	0	1	8	-17	-10.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	+7.7	15
2	Utrecht	4	4	0	0	+4	+2.0	12
3	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.0	9
4	NAC Breda	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.4	9
5	For Sittard	5	3	0	2	+0	+2.5	9
6	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+5	+5.2	8
7	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
8	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
9	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+2	+0.4	7
10	Willem II	5	2	1	2	+2	-2.1	7
11	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-1	+4.9	7
12	Zwolle	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.8	6
13	Groningen	5	1	2	2	+1	-2.6	5
14	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.3	5
15	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	4	1	-1	+2.6	4
16	Almere City	6	1	1	4	-12	-1.8	4
17	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
18	Waalwijk	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.0	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.6	10
3	Utrecht	4	3	1	0	+3	-2.6	10
4	Feyenoord	5	2	3	0	+8	+4.1	9
5	Twente	5	2	1	2	+4	+2.5	7
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.6	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
9	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
10	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.3	5
11	Groningen	5	1	1	3	-3	-3.1	4
12	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-5	-5.4	4
13	Nijmegen	5	1	0	4	-2	-3.1	3
14	NAC Breda	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.5	3
15	Almere City	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.7	2
16	Zwolle	5	0	2	3	-8	-8.1	2
17	Heerenveen	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.