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Championship
Referee: J Linington
Bristol City
U U U S U
0–0
Full-time
Leeds
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Leeds
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 41%
27%
55%
Points per game
1,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
45%
36%
Both score Ø 50%
64%
36%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,16 xG 1,38
32% Possession 68%
4 Shots 17
0 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
7 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bristol City 10. · Leeds 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sunderland 11 8 1 2 +12 +2.3 25
2 Burnley 11 6 4 1 +12 +1.5 22
3 Leeds 11 6 4 1 +11 +10.7 22
4 Sheffield United 11 6 3 2 +6 +2.6 21
5 West Brom 11 5 4 2 +6 +4.9 19
6 Blackburn 11 5 4 2 +5 -0.0 19
7 Norwich 11 4 5 2 +6 +5.0 17
8 Middlesbrough 11 5 2 4 +2 +10.6 17
9 Watford 11 5 1 5 -4 -5.6 16
10 Bristol City 11 3 6 2 -2 +1.2 15
11 Sheffield Weds 12 4 3 5 -5 -1.9 15
12 Oxford 11 3 5 3 +2 -3.1 14
13 Derby 11 4 2 5 +0 -1.9 14
14 Millwall 11 3 4 4 +2 +8.1 13
15 Swansea 11 3 4 4 +1 -2.4 13
16 Hull 11 3 4 4 -2 -2.9 13
17 Preston 11 3 4 4 -4 -2.9 13
18 Stoke 11 3 3 5 -2 -5.0 12
19 Luton 11 3 2 6 -5 +2.9 11
20 Cardiff 11 3 2 6 -7 -2.1 11
21 Plymouth 11 3 2 6 -9 -11.2 11
22 Coventry 11 2 3 6 -4 +1.4 9
23 QPR 11 1 5 5 -8 -2.8 8
24 Portsmouth 12 1 5 6 -13 -9.3 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bristol City Leeds
K. Naismith 🔁
↦ R. McCrorie
35′
40′
🟨 Wilfried Gnonto
Half-time 0–0
50′
🟨 Ao Tanaka
S. Armstrong 🔁
↦ N. Wells
59′
G. Earthy 🔁
↦ M. McGuane
59′
67′
🟨 Jayden Bogle
70′
🔁 Mateo Joseph
↦ J. Piroe
71′
🔁 M. Solomon
↦ D. James
E. Morrison 🔁
↦ M. Sykes
78′
F. Mayulu 🔁
↦ Y. Hirakawa
78′
Elijah Morrison 🟨
85′
85′
🔁 P. Bamford
↦ W. Gnonto
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Bristol City

3-4-2-1
1 M. O’Leary G
19 G. Tanner D
14 Z. Vyner D
15 L. McNally D
17 M. Sykes M
29 M. McGuane M
12 J. Knight M
2 R. McCrorie M
7 Y. Hirakawa F
6 M. Bird F
21 N. Wells F
Bench (9)
4 K. Naismith
30 S. Armstrong
40 G. Earthy
31 E. Morrison
9 F. Mayulu
23 S. Bajić
33 J. Campbell-Slowey
27 H. Cornick
11 A. Mehmeti

Coach: L. Manning

Leeds

4-2-3-1
1 I. Meslier G
2 J. Bogle D
6 J. Rodon D
5 P. Struijk D
25 S. Byram D
8 J. Rothwell M
22 A. Tanaka M
7 D. James M
11 B. Aaronson M
29 W. Gnonto M
10 J. Piroe F
Bench (9)
19 Mateo Joseph
14 M. Solomon
9 P. Bamford
26 K. Darlow
37 J. Debayo
50 C. Crew
23 J. Guilavogui
33 I. Schmidt
30 J. Gelhardt

Coach: D. Farke

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,04
U ✓
3,63
B
1,88
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,89
U2,5 ✓
1,91
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Linington · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.