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Premier League

Referee: T Harrington

Man City

U S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Southampton

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

2,5

0,1

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 76%

88%

63%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,95 xG 0,21

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Southampton 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	0	1	+12	+10.0	21
2	Man City	8	6	2	0	+10	+6.8	20
3	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+7	+4.5	17
4	Aston Villa	8	5	2	1	+5	+3.0	17
5	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+4	+2.3	16
6	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+4	-1.3	15
7	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+5.8	14
8	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+9	+8.0	13
9	Newcastle	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.0	12
10	Fulham	8	3	2	3	+0	+2.9	11
11	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+0	+4.1	11
12	Man United	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.0	11
13	Brentford	8	3	1	4	-1	-2.5	10
14	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.7	9
15	West Ham	8	2	2	4	-4	-1.3	8
16	Everton	8	2	2	4	-6	-4.4	8
17	Ipswich	8	0	4	4	-10	-11.1	4
18	Crystal Palace	8	0	3	5	-6	-3.1	3
19	Southampton	8	0	1	7	-12	-6.8	1
20	Wolves	8	0	1	7	-13	-8.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+7.5	10
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.7	10
3	Brentford	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.2	10
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+5	+4.7	9
6	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.0	8
7	Bournemouth	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.5	7
8	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
9	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+1	+2.8	7
10	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.6	7
11	Man United	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.6	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.7	5
13	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.6	5
14	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
15	Everton	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.7	4
16	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.0	3
17	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.2	2
18	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.8	2
19	Southampton	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	4	0	0	4	-7	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.3	12
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
4	Aston Villa	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.2	10
5	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	-0.9	9
6	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.0	7
8	Man United	4	1	2	1	+2	+1.6	5
9	West Ham	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
10	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.3	5
11	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.8	4
12	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.1	4
13	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.7	4
14	Everton	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
15	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.6	4
16	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-6	-8.3	2
17	Crystal Palace	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.0	1
18	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-6	-5.5	1
19	Brentford	4	0	0	4	-6	-6.7	0
20	Southampton	4	0	0	4	-7	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.