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La Liga

Referee: Pablo González

Almeria

S T T T T

3–1

Full-time

Vallecano

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 6

4 Offside 4

22 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 18. · Vallecano 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Real Madrid	7	6	1	0	+11	19
3	Ath Bilbao	7	5	1	1	+12	16
4	Betis	7	5	0	2	+5	15
5	Valencia	8	4	1	3	+6	13
6	Ath Madrid	7	4	1	2	+6	13
7	Sociedad	7	4	1	2	+1	13
8	Osasuna	8	4	1	3	+1	13
9	Villarreal	7	3	3	1	+8	12
10	Vallecano	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Celta	7	3	1	3	-4	10
12	Mallorca	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Girona	7	2	1	4	-2	7
14	Getafe	7	2	1	4	-7	7
15	Valladolid	7	2	1	4	-7	7
16	Espanol	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Sevilla	7	1	2	4	-6	5
18	Almeria	7	1	1	5	-7	4
19	Cadiz	7	1	1	5	-13	4
20	Elche	7	0	1	6	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Betis	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Valencia	4	3	0	1	+7	9
4	Osasuna	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+7	7
6	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Celta	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Girona	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+4	4
11	Mallorca	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Getafe	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Ath Madrid	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Almeria	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Valladolid	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Elche	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Espanol	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Cadiz	4	0	1	3	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Sociedad	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	+4	8
6	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	+0	4
8	Espanol	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Sevilla	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Mallorca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Valladolid	4	1	1	2	-4	4
14	Betis	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Getafe	3	1	0	2	-4	3
16	Cadiz	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Celta	3	1	0	2	-5	3
18	Girona	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Elche	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.