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LaLiga2
Referee: Andrés Fuentes
Burgos
S U U U U
3–0
Full-time
Alaves
U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burgos Alaves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
0,2
2,7
Scored
0,2
1,7
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,7
This season — LaLiga2 · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 44%
25%
63%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 44%
0%
88%
Average goals
0,3
2,5
Scored
0,3
1,6
Conceded
0,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%
11 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burgos 10. · Alaves 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Alaves 8 5 3 0 +6 18
2 Las Palmas 9 4 5 0 +9 17
3 Cartagena 8 5 1 2 +4 16
4 Sp Gijon 9 4 3 2 +5 15
5 Eibar 8 4 2 2 +4 14
6 Albacete 8 4 2 2 +2 14
7 Andorra 8 4 2 2 +1 14
8 Granada 9 4 2 3 +1 14
9 Huesca 9 3 3 3 +2 12
10 Burgos 8 2 6 0 +2 12
11 Villarreal B 9 3 3 3 -1 12
12 Ponferradina 9 3 2 4 -3 11
13 Ibiza 9 3 2 4 -4 11
14 Levante 8 2 4 2 +2 10
15 Tenerife 8 2 3 3 -1 9
16 Zaragoza 8 2 3 3 -2 9
17 Oviedo 8 2 3 3 -2 9
18 Lugo 9 2 3 4 -3 9
19 Mirandes 8 1 3 4 -5 6
20 Santander 8 1 2 5 -5 5
21 Malaga 8 1 2 5 -7 5
22 Leganes 8 1 1 6 -5 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burgos Alaves
Grego Sierra 🟨
-5′
16′
🟨 Miguel de la Fuente
22′
🟨 Carlos Benavídez
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Gaspar Campos
Pablo Valcarce
53′
63′
🔁 T. Hara
↦ Miguel de la Fuente
63′
🔁 Toni Moya
↦ C. Benavídez
Pablo Valcarce 🟨
64′
Álex Bermejo 🔁
↦ Juan Artola
68′
73′
🔁 Róber
↦ Xeber Alkain
José Matos 🔁
↦ Fran García
77′
Miki Muñoz 🔁
↦ Gaspar Campos
78′
2–0 Miki Muñoz
Miguel Atienza
81′
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta 🟨
83′
85′
🔁 A. Rebbach
↦ Luis Rioja
85′
🔁 Jason
↦ Salva Sevilla
Borja González 🔁
↦ Jesús Areso
87′
Mourad 🔁
↦ Pablo Valcarce
87′
3–0 Curro Sánchez
96′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Burgos

4-2-3-1
13 José Caro G
19 Jesús Areso D
18 Aitor Córdoba D
4 Míchel Zabaco D
3 Fran García D
14 Unai Elgezabal M
5 Miguel Atienza M
16 Curro Sánchez M
8 Pablo Valcarce M
11 Gaspar Campos M
7 Juan Artola F
Bench (10)
10 Álex Bermejo
23 José Matos
22 Miki Muñoz
2 Borja González
9 Mourad
21 Saúl Berjón
20 Grego Sierra
6 Raúl Navarro
1 Dani Barrio
15 Juan Hernández

Coach: Julián Calero

Alaves

4-2-3-1
1 Sivera G
14 N. Tenaglia D
22 A. Abqar D
19 N. Maraš D
3 Rubén Duarte D
23 C. Benavídez M
8 Salva Sevilla M
17 Xeber Alkain M
18 Jon Guridi M
11 Luis Rioja M
9 Miguel de la Fuente F
Bench (12)
24 T. Hara
6 Toni Moya
20 Róber
21 A. Rebbach
10 Jason
27 Javi López
4 A. Sedlar
31 Jesús Owono
32 Imanol Baz
2 A. Arroyo
28 Álex Balboa
29 A. Mahmoud

Coach: Luis García

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,95
U
2,98
B
2,55
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,53
U2,5
1,50
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Andrés Fuentes · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.