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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Alaves
U T T T T
1–0
Full-time
Vallecano
T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Vallecano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,3
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
0,8
0,7
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,7
This season — La Liga · 31/30 matches
Win Ø 23%
16%
30%
Points per game
0,7
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
45%
40%
Both score Ø 44%
45%
43%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,1
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,9
-0,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
11 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 9
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 12
10 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Alaves 20. · Vallecano 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 31 22 6 3 +37 72
2 Barcelona 30 17 9 4 +29 60
3 Sevilla 31 16 12 3 +22 60
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 +19 57
5 Betis 32 17 6 9 +19 57
6 Sociedad 32 15 10 7 +2 55
7 Villarreal 31 12 10 9 +19 46
8 Ath Bilbao 31 11 12 8 +6 45
9 Valencia 31 10 12 9 -1 42
10 Osasuna 31 11 8 12 -9 41
11 Espanol 31 10 9 12 -6 39
12 Celta 31 9 9 13 -1 36
13 Elche 32 9 8 15 -9 35
14 Vallecano 30 9 7 14 -5 34
15 Getafe 31 7 11 13 -7 32
16 Granada 31 6 11 14 -17 29
17 Mallorca 32 7 8 17 -26 29
18 Cadiz 31 5 13 13 -17 28
19 Levante 31 4 10 17 -26 22
20 Alaves 31 5 7 19 -29 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Alaves Vallecano
Half-time 0–0
Manu García 🔁
↦ Jason
46′
Gonzalo Escalante 🟨
48′
55′
🟨 Randy Nteka
1–0 Joselu
Manu García
64′
65′
🔁 Ó. Trejo
↦ R. Nteka
74′
🔁 Unai López
↦ Fran García
74′
🔁 Bebé
↦ Santi Comesaña
Rubén Duarte 🔁
↦ Ximo Navarro
75′
Martín Aguirregabiria 🔁
↦ Edgar Méndez
75′
Pina 🔁
↦ G. Escalante
84′
Miguel de la Fuente 🔁
↦ Luis Rioja
86′
88′
🟥 Ivan Balliu
90′
🔁 Mario Hernández
↦ Óscar Valentín
93′
🟨 Nikola Maraš
Rubén Duarte 🟨
98′
98′
🟨 Isi Palazón
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Alaves

4-4-2
1 Pacheco G
5 Laguardia D
22 F. Lejeune D
23 Ximo Navarro D
2 N. Tenaglia D
17 Edgar Méndez F
16 G. Escalante M
25 Jason M
6 M. Loum M
9 Joselu F
11 Luis Rioja M
Bench (12)
14 Manu García
3 Rubén Duarte
21 Martín Aguirregabiria
8 Pina
24 Miguel de la Fuente
26 A. Abqar
4 M. Miazga
13 Sivera
10 J. Guidetti
15 Toni Moya
7 Manu Vallejo
18 F. Pellistri

Coach: Mendilibar

Vallecano

4-2-3-1
13 S. Dimitrievski G
20 I. Balliu D
2 N. Maraš D
33 Fran García D
5 Catena D
18 Álvaro García M
23 Óscar Valentín M
6 Santi Comesaña M
9 R. Nteka M
16 Sergi Guardiola F
7 Isi Palazón M
Bench (8)
8 Ó. Trejo
12 Unai López
10 Bebé
32 Mario Hernández
21 P. Ciss
1 L. Zidane
19 Kévin Rodrigues
4 Mario Suárez

Coach: Andoni Iraola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,71
U
3,13
B
2,81
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,32
U2,5 ✓
1,62
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.