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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Dortmund

T S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

4,5

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 59%

68%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 58%

54%

61%

Average goals

3,1

3,5

Scored

2,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,30 xG 0,63

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Leverkusen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	23	4	1	+73	+52.1	73
2	Dortmund	28	19	7	2	+32	+21.0	64
3	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	+19	+13.4	53
4	Stuttgart	28	16	5	7	+18	+8.3	53
5	Hoffenheim	29	15	6	8	+14	+1.5	51
6	Leverkusen	28	14	7	7	+19	+17.2	49
7	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	9	9	-1	-2.8	39
8	Freiburg	28	10	7	11	-6	+3.8	37
9	Mainz	28	8	9	11	-8	-6.1	33
10	Augsburg	29	9	6	14	-17	-14.8	33
11	Union Berlin	28	8	8	12	-15	-6.3	32
12	Hamburg	28	7	10	11	-9	-15.8	31
13	M'gladbach	28	7	9	12	-13	-6.3	30
14	Werder Bremen	28	7	7	14	-18	-7.3	28
15	FC Koln	28	6	9	13	-9	-5.2	27
16	St Pauli	28	6	7	15	-20	-18.5	25
17	Wolfsburg	28	5	6	17	-25	-17.2	21
18	Heidenheim	28	3	7	18	-34	-17.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	14	11	2	1	+20	+17.3	35
3	Stuttgart	14	10	2	2	+8	+6.3	32
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+16	+9.0	29
5	Leverkusen	14	8	3	3	+17	+17.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	1	5	+12	+6.2	25
7	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	+10.5	25
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	+5	+3.7	24
9	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	-5	-7.4	22
10	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
11	Union Berlin	14	4	6	4	-3	+3.4	18
12	Mainz	14	4	5	5	+0	+4.9	17
13	M'gladbach	14	4	5	5	-5	-1.6	17
14	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	+1	+0.9	16
15	St Pauli	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.5	16
16	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-10	+3.4	16
17	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.2	11
18	Wolfsburg	14	2	3	9	-9	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	3	0	+30	+21.6	36
2	Dortmund	14	8	5	1	+12	+3.7	29
3	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+2	-4.6	26
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+3	+4.4	24
5	Leverkusen	14	6	4	4	+2	-0.2	22
6	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
7	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-8	-11.1	16
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	6	5	-6	-6.5	15
9	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-9.7	14
10	M'gladbach	14	3	4	7	-8	-4.7	13
11	Werder Bremen	14	3	3	8	-8	-10.7	12
12	Freiburg	14	3	3	8	-13	-6.6	12
13	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	-15.2	12
14	FC Koln	14	2	5	7	-10	-6.1	11
15	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-12	-7.5	11
16	Hamburg	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.2	10
17	St Pauli	15	2	3	10	-14	-15.0	9
18	Heidenheim	14	1	2	11	-18	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.