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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Mainz

T T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

10%

60%

Points per game

0,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

40%

80%

Both score Ø 65%

50%

80%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,03 xG 1,38

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 17. · Hoffenheim 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	9	1	0	+29	+20.0	28
2	RB Leipzig	10	7	1	2	+7	+4.2	22
3	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+9	+5.6	21
4	Stuttgart	10	7	0	3	+5	+3.8	21
5	Leverkusen	10	6	2	2	+10	+8.1	20
6	Hoffenheim	10	6	1	3	+5	+1.3	19
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.7	17
8	Werder Bremen	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.3	15
9	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.5	14
10	Freiburg	10	3	4	3	-1	+0.9	13
11	Union Berlin	10	3	3	4	-4	-5.4	12
12	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.4	9
13	Hamburg	10	2	3	5	-7	-3.6	9
14	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-6	-4.5	8
15	Augsburg	10	2	1	7	-10	-8.8	7
16	St Pauli	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.3	7
17	Mainz	10	1	2	7	-8	-3.2	5
18	Heidenheim	10	1	2	7	-15	-7.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+8.9	15
2	Stuttgart	5	5	0	0	+6	+1.7	15
3	Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+11	+8.7	13
4	RB Leipzig	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.9	12
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
6	Werder Bremen	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.6	10
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.0	9
8	Union Berlin	6	2	3	1	+1	-1.3	9
9	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.8	8
10	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.5	7
11	Hamburg	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.5	7
12	Hoffenheim	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.9	6
13	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.8	5
14	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-7	-3.6	5
15	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
16	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.1	3
17	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+10	+11.1	13
2	Hoffenheim	5	4	1	0	+7	+2.2	13
3	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	+4	+2.6	11
4	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
6	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	-1	-0.6	7
7	FC Koln	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
8	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.1	6
9	Wolfsburg	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
10	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.9	5
11	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-3	-7.0	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	+1	+1.2	4
13	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-2.7	4
14	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.1	4
15	St Pauli	5	1	0	4	-4	-3.5	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.1	2
18	Heidenheim	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.