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Ekstraklasa

Referee: K Arys

Arka Gdynia

S T T S T

1–4

Full-time

Rakow

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arka Gdynia Rakow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 39%

31%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

50%

53%

Both score Ø 52%

44%

60%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,39 xG 2,36

37% Possession 63%

6 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arka Gdynia 16. · Rakow 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	17	9	3	5	+8	-3.6	30
2	Jagiellonia	14	8	3	3	+9	-1.3	27
3	Wisla Plock	15	7	6	2	+9	+4.4	27
4	Radomiak Radom	17	7	4	6	+5	+1.5	25
5	Cracovia	16	7	4	5	+4	+2.1	25
6	Lech Poznan	15	6	6	3	+3	+9.9	24
7	Korona Kielce	17	6	5	6	+2	-0.6	23
8	Rakow	15	7	2	6	+0	+1.6	23
9	Lechia Gdansk	17	6	4	7	-3	-0.1	22
10	Zaglebie	15	5	6	4	+5	-2.4	21
11	Widzew Lodz	17	6	2	9	-1	+3.2	20
12	Pogon Szczecin	17	6	2	9	-4	+7.2	20
13	GKS Katowice	16	6	2	8	-4	-7.2	20
14	Motor Lublin	15	4	7	4	-4	+0.2	19
15	Legia	15	4	6	5	+1	+0.8	18
16	Arka Gdynia	16	5	3	8	-15	-6.6	18
17	Nieciecza	17	4	4	9	-12	-3.8	16
18	Piast Gliwice	15	3	5	7	-3	-5.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Radomiak Radom	9	6	2	1	+15	+5.4	20
2	Gornik Zabrze	9	6	1	2	+10	+2.1	19
3	Wisla Plock	8	6	1	1	+9	+6.2	19
4	Arka Gdynia	7	5	2	0	+6	-3.5	17
5	Zaglebie	7	4	3	0	+12	+2.6	15
6	Jagiellonia	7	5	0	2	+7	+0.6	15
7	Pogon Szczecin	8	5	0	3	+6	+7.6	15
8	Cracovia	8	4	3	1	+5	+5.0	15
9	Lechia Gdansk	8	4	2	2	+6	+2.4	14
10	Widzew Lodz	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.3	14
11	Legia	8	3	4	1	+5	+0.6	13
12	Korona Kielce	8	4	1	3	+3	+1.6	13
13	Lech Poznan	9	3	4	2	+1	+6.6	13
14	GKS Katowice	9	4	1	4	+0	-3.5	13
15	Motor Lublin	7	2	4	1	+1	+4.7	10
16	Rakow	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.4	8
17	Piast Gliwice	7	1	3	3	-2	-1.4	6
18	Nieciecza	8	1	2	5	-8	-1.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	8	5	0	3	+1	+0.2	15
2	Jagiellonia	7	3	3	1	+2	-1.9	12
3	Lech Poznan	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.3	11
4	Gornik Zabrze	8	3	2	3	-2	-5.8	11
5	Nieciecza	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
6	Cracovia	8	3	1	4	-1	-2.8	10
7	Korona Kielce	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.2	10
8	Motor Lublin	8	2	3	3	-5	-4.5	9
9	Wisla Plock	7	1	5	1	+0	-1.8	8
10	Piast Gliwice	8	2	2	4	-1	-4.1	8
11	Lechia Gdansk	9	2	2	5	-9	-2.5	8
12	GKS Katowice	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.7	7
13	Widzew Lodz	8	2	0	6	-4	+1.0	6
14	Zaglebie	8	1	3	4	-7	-5.0	6
15	Legia	7	1	2	4	-4	+0.3	5
16	Radomiak Radom	8	1	2	5	-10	-3.9	5
17	Pogon Szczecin	9	1	2	6	-10	-0.4	5
18	Arka Gdynia	9	0	1	8	-21	-3.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.