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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Aston Villa

T S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Wolves

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Wolves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,7

2,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,6

Conceded

0,9

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 0,49

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 21

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 5. · Wolves 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+18	+15.1	29
2	Man City	13	8	1	4	+15	+10.9	25
3	Chelsea	12	7	2	3	+12	+8.2	23
4	Sunderland	13	6	4	3	+4	-5.3	22
5	Aston Villa	12	6	3	3	+4	-5.3	21
6	Man United	13	6	3	4	+1	+2.5	21
7	Crystal Palace	13	5	5	3	+6	+6.7	20
8	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+3	+2.9	19
9	Brentford	13	6	1	6	+1	+5.9	19
10	Bournemouth	13	5	4	4	-2	+2.1	19
11	Tottenham	13	5	3	5	+5	-5.6	18
12	Newcastle	13	5	3	5	+1	+2.4	18
13	Liverpool	12	6	0	6	-2	+4.3	18
14	Everton	13	5	3	5	-3	-3.2	18
15	Fulham	13	5	2	6	-2	-2.2	17
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.2	12
17	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-10	-7.7	11
18	Leeds	13	3	2	8	-12	-3.1	11
19	Burnley	13	3	1	9	-12	-19.1	10
20	Wolves	12	0	2	10	-20	-6.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.7	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	1	0	+14	+9.0	16
3	Brentford	7	5	1	1	+7	+4.5	16
4	Sunderland	7	4	3	0	+7	-0.9	15
5	Brighton	6	4	2	0	+6	+2.6	14
6	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+6	+5.8	14
7	Fulham	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.3	13
8	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+5	-2.1	13
9	Man United	6	4	0	2	+4	+6.8	12
10	Newcastle	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.4	12
11	Liverpool	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.3	12
12	Everton	7	3	2	2	-1	+0.9	11
13	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.6	10
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.9	10
15	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.8	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-1	-8.0	7
17	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.0	7
18	West Ham	6	2	0	4	-7	-3.2	6
19	Tottenham	7	1	2	4	-1	-2.8	5
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-0.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	+4.6	13
2	Tottenham	6	4	1	1	+6	-2.9	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	+6.1	13
4	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+4	+0.7	10
5	Man United	7	2	3	2	-3	-4.3	9
6	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	-1	-3.2	8
7	Man City	6	2	1	3	+2	+2.2	7
8	Everton	6	2	1	3	-2	-4.1	7
9	Sunderland	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
10	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-2	-1.0	6
11	Liverpool	6	2	0	4	-4	+1.0	6
12	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
13	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.3	5
14	Nott'm Forest	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.3	5
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
16	Fulham	7	1	1	5	-8	-4.5	4
17	Brentford	6	1	0	5	-6	+1.5	3
18	Burnley	7	1	0	6	-11	-11.1	3
19	Leeds	7	1	0	6	-12	-7.9	3
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.