Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | +21 | +14.8 | 31 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +21 | +19.2 | 28 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | +18 | +15.4 | 28 |
| 4 |
Gil Vicente
|
12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +10 | +3.4 | 23 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +6 | +5.5 | 20 |
| 6 |
Moreirense
|
12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | +1 | -6.8 | 19 |
| 7 |
Guimaraes
|
12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | -3.5 | 17 |
| 8 |
Sp Braga
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +8 | +6.0 | 16 |
| 9 |
Alverca
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | -0.6 | 14 |
| 10 |
Estoril
|
11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +2 | -0.9 | 13 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -5 | -9.3 | 12 |
| 12 |
Nacional
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | -5.7 | 12 |
| 13 |
Estrela
|
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | +1.7 | 11 |
| 14 |
Santa Clara
|
11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | +1.9 | 11 |
| 15 |
Casa Pia
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | -10.2 | 9 |
| 16 |
Tondela
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | -6.4 | 9 |
| 17 |
Arouca
|
11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -17 | -14.2 | 9 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -21 | -10.3 | 3 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
F. Petrasso
D
N. Abbey
D
M. Vrousai
M
A. Ntoi
M
N. Athanasiou
M
Clayton
F
O. Pohlmann
F
Coach: Sotiris Silaidopoulos
S. Lima
D
Lucas Soares
M
P. Ferreira
F
Brenner
F
Coach: Vasco Miguel Lopes de Matos
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Alverca
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Estoril
Estrela
Rio Ave
Sintrense
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Tondela
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.